Five Unusual Indicators That Could Predict Presidential Election Winner

Who will win: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? Election Day is less than 30 days away, and pollsters and pundits have been racing to predict the result in what is shaping up to be a very close race. From the polls to betting markets and Allan Lichtman’s famous “Keys” model, there is seemingly no end to the different prediction methods.

But some are less conventional than others. What if you used candidate height, astrology or cookie sales to predict the election outcome? As November 5 approaches, Newsweek looked at five unusual indicators that could predict who will win the White House.

The S&P 500 Index

The stock market is one surprising election outcome indicator, according to broker-dealer LPL Financial. If the S&P 500 is up between August and November, the incumbent party is likely to keep the White House. If the benchmark index makes losses in those three months prior to the election instead, then it indicates that the incumbent party will lose the presidency.

This proved to be the case for Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932, John F. Kennedy in 1961, and Barack Obama in 2008, when Democrats took back the White House from Republicans and the S&P 500 was down in the three-month run up to the election. The same thing happened when Republicans won the White House in 1952, 2000 and 2016.

The stock market being up or down in the three months before Election Day has correctly predicted the outcome of 21 out of the last 24 elections.

How’s it looking for Harris and Trump?

The S&P 500 is currently up more than six percent since August 1, having closed at 5,792.04 on Wednesday. If the market continues the gains it made in August and September for the next four weeks, it would indicate a victory for the vice president.

Candidate Height

In 18 of the last 24 elections, the tallest candidate has won the election, lending a “tallest person wins,” logic to election proceedings. The tallest U.S. president was Abraham Lincoln, who reportedly measured 6 feet, 4 inches (193 centimeters). The shortest was James Madison, who was 5 feet, 4 inches (163 centimeters).

The rule has become less reliable in the past two decades; George W. Bush was shorter than both Al Gore and John Kerry, and Joe Biden is shorter than Trump by three inches.

How’s it looking for Harris and Trump?

If the rule applies this year, then the former president, who is reportedly 6 feet, three inches tall, will beat Harris, who is 5 feet, 4 and a half inches tall (164 centimeters). If Harris bucks the trend, as Biden did before her, the Democratic nominee would be the shortest president since Madison, by half an inch.

The Redskins Rule

The Redskins Rule is a spurious correlation between the results of National Football League (NFL) games and the results of the presidential election, first noticed by an executive at a sports-data company ahead of the 2000 election.

The rule states that whenever the Washington Redskins (now known as the Washington Commanders) “won their last home game prior to the presidential election, the incumbent party retained the White House, and whenever the Redskins lost their last home game prior to the election, the out-of-power party won the White House,” said Steve Hirdt of Elias Sports Bureau in a 2012 interview with ESPN.

The rule held true in each election from 1940 to 2000, but in the Redskins’ last home game ahead of the 2004 election, the team lost 28-14 to the Green Bay Packers, and President George W. Bush won re-election.

Hirdt revised the rule, according to the ESPN interview: “Redskins Rule 2.0 established that when the popular vote winner does not win the election, the impact of the Redskins game on the subsequent presidential election gets flipped.”

The “Redskins Rule 2.0” then has correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1940, except those in 2012 and 2016.

How’s it looking for Harris and Trump?

The final Washington Commanders home game before the election is against the Chicago Bears on October 27. The Commanders have won more games this season so far than the Bears, and Harris might be hoping that counts for something while Trump could have his fingers crossed for a Bears victory.

Cookie Sales

Busken Bakery in Ohio has predicted almost every presidential election correctly since 1984 through cookie sales. The Cincinnati bakery sells cookies with each presidential candidate’s face on them, and the cookie that sells the most goes on to win the election.

“In 1984, when Reagan and Mondale were presidential candidates, my dad came up with the idea to let Cincinnatians vote with their mouth. He birthed the idea of a cookie poll,” Dan Busken of Busken Bakery told Newsweek in an email.

“It was so fun that first year that we kept doing it and we couldn’t believe the accuracy each election cycle.”

The cookie poll has proved accurate in nine out of ten elections since it began, with 2020 being the only time the less popular cookie’s candidate won.

“We look at this as an opportunity to provide a little levity to elections. Elections have seemed to become more hostile over the years and we have discussed whether we should keep doing the cookie poll.”

“But we have always been Cincinnati’s bakery known for good clean fun. We don’t take sides, we remain neutral and we encourage our customers to stuff the ballot box. We promise them that we will leave ‘no crumb uncounted.'”

“Cookie sales seem to go up every election,” Busken explained. “We consider this a good old-fashioned straw poll with some added calories.”

How’s it looking for Harris and Trump?

The cookie poll went viral after the New York Post shared news that Trump was taking the lead, and the news was shared on X, formerly Twitter, by Elon Musk. On Wednesday, Busken Bakery had its “Doughmocracy for all,” count at 7,027 cookies for Harris, and 20,312 cookies for Trump.

Astrology

Links between astrology and politics date pack to the Roman empire. Former first lady Nancy Reagan consulted an astrologer after a 1981 attempt on her husband’s life.

Newsweek spoke to astrologer Nadiya Shah, who said, “Astrology has its origins in predicting when a change in rulership might occur, for example, when a new king would rise. Ancient societies often thought of a major celestial omen, like a solar eclipse, was a symbol which would denote a new leader, who would “eclipse the past”.

Shah said that she had “noticed strong connections with the planet Uranus. Though it is a modern planet, as astrologers we use the same types of planetary connections and techniques, and this planet in particular can bring the kinds of dramatic changes that can come when someone has a breakthrough moment, like winning a major election.”

“Countries have birth charts too. Astrologers can look at key moments of activation to this chart as well, to denote a significant change of government or president,” Shah added.

Astrologers use the birth charts of presidential candidates to try and ascertain when major events may happen and when they may step into their political power.

How’s it looking for Harris and Trump?

“Astrologers are always divided about making a judgement on who will win the presidency. It can depend on the techniques we use, and of course, because you can’t have astrology without the astrologer, our own biases will come into play,” Shah said.

And as for who might win? “Considering that Jupiter is currently in Gemini, a sign that figures strongly in the charts of both candidates, with Trump being a Gemini Sun, born during an eclipse season, and Harris being a Gemini Ascendant- a key point of sensitivity in the chart, conjunct a destiny point called the North Node, the odds as to who wins, at this point, look about even.”

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