Four Swing States Shifted Toward Kamala Harris in Final Week: Nate Silver
November 4, 2024
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Four swing states have shifted toward Kamala Harris in the last week before the vote on November 5, according to the latest polling compiled by Nate Silver.
Compared to last week, polls show the Democratic candidate gaining +0.1 in North Carolina, +0.3 in Michigan, +0.1 in Georgia, and +0.3 in Wisconsin.
In only two of these battleground states, however, does Harris have a lead over Republican candidate Donald Trump: in Michigan, Silver says polls give Harris a +1.1 advantage; in Wisconsin, she has a lead of +0.8.
In North Carolina, Trump is ahead with a +1.1 margin, while in Georgia he is estimated to lead by +1.3, according to Silver.
Based on Silver’s model, Trump still leads in five out of seven swing states—enough to suggest he may declare victory on November 5.
In the last week, Trump gained support in polling in two other swing states: Arizona and Pennsylvania. In Arizona, the former president’s rating grew +0.5; in Pennsylvania, a key battleground state which experts believe could determine the result of the race, he gained +0.1 in the last seven days.
But the election guru said that that did not mean calling the result yet, as the presidential race had remained extremely close for weeks.
Newsweek contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns via email for comment on Monday
U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris smiles during a campaign rally at Michigan State University’s Jenison Field House in East Lansing, Michigan, on November 3, 2024. Four battleground states, including Michigan, have… U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris smiles during a campaign rally at Michigan State University’s Jenison Field House in East Lansing, Michigan, on November 3, 2024. Four battleground states, including Michigan, have shifted toward Harris in the last week, according to Nate Silver’s model—but the race remains close.
JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images
The shift in the four swing states toward Harris related to the last seven days. Looking at the last month, Silver’s average of 2024 presidential general election polls conducted nationally and in each state showed that Trump had gained an advantage in those same states.
Trump’s results were up +0.6 in North Carolina, +0.9 in Michigan, +0.3 in Georgia and +1.2 in Wisconsin over the month, Silver’s polling analysis showed.
Silver wrote in his blog, The Silver Bulletin, that the race is “really and truly close to 50/50.” He added: “Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning. And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”
At the moment, according to Silver’s model, Trump leads in the following states: Pennsylvania (0.4); North Carolina (+1.1); Arizona (+2.6); Nevada (+0.4); Texas (+7.1); Florida (+6.5); Iowa (+3.4); Alaska (+8.9); Ohio (+6.2); ME-2 (+4.8); Montana (+18.7); South Carolina (+11.6); Utah (+25.7); Missouri (+13.4); Nebraska (+15.7); and Indiana (+17.3).
Harris leads in Michigan (+1.1); Wisconsin (0.8); New Mexico (+6.6); New Hampshire (+4.5); Minnesota (+6.5); Virginia (+6.3); Maine (+8.5); California (+24); New York (+16.4) and NE-2 (+9.4); Washington (+17.8); Massachusetts (+26.6); Rhode Island (+13.9); Maryland (+27.5) and ME-1 (+22.2).
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