California Governor Gavin Newsom has a 23 percent chance of winning the next U.S. election in 2028, according to Polymarket predictions.
It comes after Newsom said in an interview on Sunday that he is considering running for president.
Newsweek has contacted Newsom’s office, via email, for comment.
Why it Matters
The 2028 U.S. presidential race is beginning to take shape with Newsom emerging as a potential Democratic contender as the party seeks to define its post-2024 direction.
Newsom has become one of the most visible Democratic counterweights to President Trump, often clashing with him on issues ranging from federal military deployments to congressional redistricting. His national profile has grown through active engagement in Democratic politics, including visits to key primary states.
What To Know
Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat currently serving his last term in California due to term limits, told CBS News Sunday Morning that he “would be lying” if he said he was not thinking about running in 2028.
This marks a notable shift in Newsom’s public posture, following years of consistently denying presidential ambitions.
As of early Monday morning, Newsom’s chances of winning were 23 percent, just seven percentage points behind Vice President JD Vance (30 percent), Polymarket showed.
New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez came third with 8 percent, followed by Trump with 4 percent.
Newsom’s Polymarket chances have risen over the past few months, from 14 percent in July to 22 percent in September.
The Democrat has been a vocal opponent of Trump and has repeatedly gone viral on social media with his taunts of the president.
What People Are Saying
Newsom told CBS News Sunday Morning: “Yeah, I’d be lying otherwise,” when asked whether he’d consider a 2028 presidential campaign. “I’m looking forward to who presents themselves in 2028 and who meets that moment … That’s the question for the American people”
Thad Kousser, a professor of political science at UC San Diego told the Los Angeles Times: “This is Gavin Newsom finally saying out loud what everyone’s been whispering for years. He has obvious presidential ambitions and now he’s ready to own them.”
What Happens Next
Most 2028 presidential campaigns are not expected to launch until after the November 2026 midterm elections.
Newsom’s immediate political focus is the passage of Proposition 50, a California ballot measure changing how congressional districts can be redrawn, an effort he says is critical to “our democracy” and countering President Trump’s agenda.
