The year was 2010. Donald Trump starred in Season 3 of “The Celebrity Apprentice.” Obamacare squeaked through Congress. Justin Bieber — with help from Ludacris — scored his breakout hit, “Baby.”
And in California, Arnold Schwarzenegger was winding down his second and final term as governor.
Three days into 2011, the Hollywood celebrity left office, marking the last time a Republican held Sacramento’s top job.
Could that change next year?
Jumping into the gubernatorial race this week, conservative commentator Steve Hilton gave the GOP its second major candidate — alongside Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco — signaling a heightened sense of opportunity for a party that hasn’t wielded significant power in the state Capitol since “Avatar” reigned at the box office.
Not that a GOP takeover is likely. Only the most punch-drunk partisan would give Republicans as much as a 50-50 chance of succeeding Gavin Newsom.
Some would say there’s a greater likelihood of JD Vance being elected the next pope.
Kevin Spillane, a Republican strategist who’s not involved in the GOP contest, believes the party would “need a lot of breaks” to elect a governor in 2026. He put the odds at no better than 35% to 40% — though, as Spillane noted, that’s “still higher than we’ve had in a long time.”
What’s buoying Republican prospects?
“It’s homelessness,” Spillane said. “It’s public safety. It’s affordability. It’s taxes. It’s gas prices. It’s energy policy. I mean, these are just bread-and-butter issues.”
If Kamala Harris decides to run, Spillane thinks that would only enhance the GOP’s chances of seizing the governorship.
“You’ll be able to tap into national Republican fundraising,” he said. Small donors. Big contributors. “There’s obviously a lot of animosity on the Republican side toward her. She, along with Gavin Newsom, are sort of seen as symbols of California’s multiple policy failures.”
But Garry South, a Democratic strategist who twice helped elect Gray Davis governor, is highly skeptical.
“No chance,” he said of Hilton, Bianco or any other Republican assuming the governorship in January 2027. “Zilch. Zero.”
South pointed to the state’s political profile: Just 25% of registered voters are Republicans. Democrats make up 45% and most of those who are unaffiliated — just about another quarter of the electorate — tend to lean Democratic.
“The numbers don’t add up,” South said. “Just get a calculator and do the math.”
He conceded that Democrats running for governor aren’t campaigning in the best of times, or benefiting from a whole lot of goodwill. After nearly a decade and a half of one-party rule in Sacramento, there’s no escaping responsibility for California’s deep-seated problems.
“There’s clearly unease about the homeless situation, which seems to be continually spiraling out of control. There’s concern about crime,” South said. “But [voters] don’t look at Republicans and see any potential solutions there.”
At least not since 2006, the last time the GOP won any statewide office.
That said, stranger things have happened. Witness the convicted felon and twice-impeached scofflaw now occupying the White House.
Matt Shupe is communications director for the California Republican Party, meaning his job is seeing that partisan hopes spring eternal. He said he doesn’t have to crane his neck too hard to envision a viable GOP path to the governorship.
While Republicans lag behind in voter registration, he noted that it’s not unusual for candidates to win 40% or more of the statewide vote. In 2022, Lanhee Chen — one of the younger, more attractive Republican candidates of recent years — received nearly 45% of the vote in an unsuccessful bid for state controller. Given unhappiness with Sacramento’s status quo, Shupe suggested, it’s not impossible to see a Republican making up that last bit of ground and winning a majority.
“Things like gay marriage and abortion” — which Democrats used for years as a bludgeon against Republicans — “are enshrined in our state Constitution and aren’t going anywhere,” Shupe said. “And assuming a Republican was elected governor, they still have the checks and balance of a majority or super-majority Democratic Legislature.
“So I think it opens people’s willingness to vote Republican just to try something new, which is desperately needed.”
With Trump back in the White House and the economy on the skids, Democrats will surely brush off their familiar playbook and seek to turn the governor’s race into a referendum on the unpopular president. (Important disclaimer: No one knows what kind of shape the economy will be in come November 2026.)
Regardless, Shupe maintained those attacks will fall flat.
The average California voter, he said, “is tired of this war on Trump. That’s not to say they’re all MAGA-hat-wearing Trump supporters. But they want the state government to focus on infrastructure, homelessness, the cost of living and all these things that affect people every single day in their pocketbooks.”
Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist who worked in Schwarzenegger’s administration, is less optimistic than Shupe.
“That’s not to say that Republicans can’t become more competitive,” Stutzman said, or improve their overall standing in California. A credible gubernatorial candidate could help the party by boosting turnout — potentially lifting up candidates for Congress and the statehouse — and laying the groundwork for a successful run at the governor’s mansion sometime in the next decade.
Asked the likelihood of a Republican winning in 2026, Stutzman offered about a 1% chance — “for the same reason that a Democrat won’t be the governor of [ruby-red] Idaho next year.”
Which — if you’re looking on the Republican bright side — is not zero.
