The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has issued an optimistic forecast for next year, saying that home sales will jump by 14 percent in 2026.
“I expect meaningfully higher home sales after three years of subpar performance, and a sales gain of 14 percent (our projection) means more Americans will be on the move,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, told Newsweek.
“That is from more inventory and from modestly lower mortgage rates.”
But some insiders are skeptical of such a big increase—and most experts expect a much smaller jump in home sales next year.
Why It Matters
The U.S. housing market has been in a slump for much of this year, as ongoing affordability challenges—including still-rising home prices, elevated borrowing costs, and higher property taxes and homeowners’ insurance premiums—have put a dampener on demand.
But a majority of experts now expect next year to bring some slight improvement to affordability in the market, as the pace of home price growth has slowed down significantly compared with its pandemic levels. While most experts say sales will get a boost in 2026, there is disagreement over just how many more homes will go under contact next year.
What To Know
Lower mortgage rates and growing inventory across the country will bring buyers back to the market next year, leading to an overall 14 percent increase in existing home sales, according to the NAR’s predictions.
“In 2026, we expect higher inventory, modest improvements in affordability and more accommodating monetary policy from the Federal Reserve will help more Americans buy their next home,” Yun said during the virtual Real Estate Forecast Summit: The Year Ahead on December 9.
This is what “real estate industry and potential homebuyers and sellers have been waiting for, following three years of stagnation,” the NAR wrote in its report announcing the expected increase.
The NAR’s prediction is based on the expectations that mortgage rates drop to 6 percent next year—a move that could “unlock” an estimated 5.5 million additional qualified homebuyers nationwide, the association said, including about 1.6 million renters.
“Lower mortgage rates will save the day,” Yun said.
But experts are skeptical that the jump in sales would be as big as the NAR believes.
“Keep this in mind: Yun completely missed the 2008 crisis; he’s structurally incentivized to publish bullish research; [and] his model assumes mortgage rates fall to 6 percent,” Florida housing expert Jon Brooks wrote on X.
“That said—locally—I do expect higher unit sales in 2026,” he added. “Prices are coming down. As prices fall, homes transfer to buyers who were previously locked out. If nothing breaks and 6 percent becomes reality, Northeast Florida sees more transactions in 2026.”
The Sunshine State is already seeing a starker correction than the rest of the country after overheating during the pandemic, especially after undergoing a construction boom in the past few years.
What People Are Saying
Adam C. Ullein of HomeSmart Coastal Realty wrote in a Facebook comment of the NAR’s predicted increase in home sales next year: “Just what in the economy is telling them that home prices are actually going to increase? I find this borderline comical.”
Market Minds, an account focused on real estate, wrote on X: “Lower rates and inventory help, but the driver is mobility. Sales don’t rise until people feel confident changing jobs, cities, and balance sheets.”
What Happens Next
Other real estate experts have different opinions on how next year will unfold. Redfin predicts that mortgage rates will average 6.3 percent next year and existing-home sales will climb by about 1.7 percent to 4.13 million.
Realtor.com forecasts home sales to be up by 3 percent in 2026 compared with a year earlier, at an annualized rate of 4.2 million.
