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Japan Faces Uncertain Future After Election
Voters dealt a heavier-than-expected blow to Japan’s government on Sunday, depriving the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)-led coalition of its majority in the parliament’s lower house for the first time in 15 years and putting into question the month-old administration of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.
The coming weeks will see the LDP and its main opposition, the liberal Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), jocking to cobble together a coalition. Whoever emerges victorious, analysts say the general election has shifted the political landscape, with foreign policy and defense likely to take a backseat to bread-and-butter issues.
The election results were a clear repudiation of LDP rule. They came off the back of a series of scandals in recent years, including a campaign slush fund maintained by the faction of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Another scandal arose after reports surfaced of connections with South Korea-based religious movement the Unification Church and campaign funding to LDP lawmakers.
Tetsuya Yamagami, who assassinated Abe in July 2022, cited Abe’s ties with the controversial church, which the gunman blamed for bankrupting his family through donations from his mother.
Ishiba’s predecessor, Fumio Kishida, resigned last month amid declining public approval and trust. Ishida called the snap election in a bid to consolidate his position within the LDP and secure a mandate for economic reform and defense initiatives.
Paths to a Coalition
His gamble failed and the LDP saw its share of the 465-seat House of Representatives drop from 247 to just 191. This number rises to 215 when including the 24 seats now held by the LDP’s junior partner, the Komeito party, but still falls short of the 233 simple majority and 261 stable majority needed to set the legislative agenda and appoint committee chairs.
To form a government, Ishiba must secure another 18 seats, a goal that would require a coalition with other parties such as the reformist Japan Innovation Party or possibly the Democratic Party for the People (DPP).
Like Ishiba, many members of the Japan Innovation Party favor a more assertive foreign policy, but the alliance could strain relations with the less hawkish Komeito, Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the Council of Foreign Relations wrote in a recent article.
That partnership would provide only a simple majority, as would one with the DPP. Achieving a stable majority would require a combination of those two minority parties, the support of the Japan Innovation Party’s 41 lawmakers plus additional support from one of the 12 independents, or a reluctant alliance with the CDP (148 seats), Smith wrote.
Japan Turns Inward
Regardless of how Ishiba’s coalition-building efforts pan out, voters have made it clear they want a shift in focus for Asia’s second-largest economy.
An exit poll by Japanese news agency Jiji Press showed that 35.8 percent of voters prioritized “economy, employment, and wage growth,” followed by 17.6 percent who cited “child care and measures against the declining birthrate,” both widespread concerns amid the demographic changes the super-aged society is grappling with. “Politics and money, and political reform” came in fourth, with 9.2 percent, reflecting the public’s desire for greater transparency in the wake of recent LDP scandals.
“Things like financial assistance to low-income earners, wages, and employment are likely to be the priority for the prime minister, not foreign policy,” said Jeffrey Hornung, adjunct professor at Georgetown University and Japan lead at the Rand Corporation’s National Security Research Division.
Hornung pointed to two ways Japan’s foreign policy could be affected by the election results.
“First, the weakened prime minister, whoever that ends up being, would have to contend with the opposition over the national budget, as many opposition parties are less supportive of strengthening Japan’s defense capabilities,” he told Newsweek.
“Second, political instability and a weakened prime minister could constrain Tokyo from being proactive in the Indo-Pacific region. This, in turn, could affect the ability of the government to rapidly respond to regional challenges.”
What Does the Election Mean For U.S., China ties?
The governments of Abe and his successors expanded Japan’s security presence, aiming to counter China’s growing military clout.
Abe reinterpreted Japan’s pacifist constitution to permit “collective self-defense” in cases where Japan’s allies are attacked. Kishida’s administration set a new defense spending target of 2 percent of GDP by 2027, in line with the minimum benchmark agreed to by NATO members. Kishida also expanded defense cooperation with U.S. allies South Korea and the Philippines.
Ishiba, formerly the nation’s defense minister, previously expressed hopes for an eventual “Indo-Pacific version of NATO.” However, if Ishiba manages to stay in power, he will have to temper his more ambitious goals in favor of seeking political consensus, Hornung said.
The analyst said the elections are unlikely to impact the U.S.-Japan defense alliance and that China, North Korea and Russia are expected to remain long-term strategic priorities.
Newsweek reached out to the Japanese Foreign Ministry by email with a request for comment outside of office hours.
The White House and the U.S. Department of State have so far refrained from commenting on Japan’s election results. Newsweek reached out to the State Department for a response.
Chinese officials have responded cautiously.
China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, told reporters Monday the plebiscite was an “internal affair,” adding that “the sustained, sound and steady development of China-Japan relations serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples.”
He expressed hope that Tokyo would work with Beijing “in the same direction” in accordance with bilateral treaties and build “a constructive and stable China-Japan relationship fit for the new era.”
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