Kamala Harris’ Chances of Winning North Carolina as She Campaigns in State

Polling shows Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, are neck-and-neck in the key swing state of North Carolina as Harris prepares to hold a campaign rally in the state on Sunday.

As Harris prepares to visit the Tarheel State, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows that as of Saturday afternoon Trump is narrowly ahead of Harris by just 0.9 points, with 48.2 percent support compared to her 47.3 percent.

Harris will spend Saturday meeting with local Black elected, faith and community leaders at a restaurant in Raleigh, one of the state’s largest cities. According to her campaign, she is also slated on Sunday to attend church in Greenville, a key part of a “Souls to the Polls” initiative designed to energize voter turnout before holding a campaign rally.

The visit is part of a broader strategy to win over the state’s diverse voter base, which includes Black and college-educated voters, as well as women who are concerned about the rollback of abortion protections.

In addition, Harris’ weekend rally will focus on the economy, a central issue in this year’s election, as well as the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which has become a political flashpoint with Trump and his allies condemning the Biden administration’s response to the natural disaster.

This weekend is Harris’ second time in the battleground state after it was struck by Helene, which left hundreds dead and dealt massive damage to infrastructure when it ripped through the Southeast late last month.

During a visit to the state last weekend, the vice president pledged ongoing federal support in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene as she has also been outspoken about ensuring that relief efforts are equitable and free from corporate price gouging.

“To any company or individual that is using this crisis to jack up prices through illegal fraud or price gouging, whether it be at the gas pump, the airport or the hotel counter, we will be monitoring and there will be a consequence,” the vice president said at yesterday’s briefing.

Newsweek has reached out to Harris’ and Trump’s campaign via email for comment.

While the state has a history of backing the Republican candidate for president, including narrowly voting for Trump in 2020, it has elected a Democratic governor in six of the last seven races and is now considered a key battleground state.

Battleground states, including North Carolina, will play a key role in determining the result of this year’s election due to the Electoral College, which awards each state a certain number of electoral votes based on population. A presidential candidate needs to secure 270 electoral votes for victory, and winning the national popular vote does not guarantee success. Surveys from battleground states may be more telling than those of national polls.

The latest independent polls in North Carolina show Trump with a narrow lead. An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 1,000 likely voters from October 5 to 8, showed Trump up 1 point in the state (50 to 49 percent).

A Wall Street Journal survey of 600 registered voters in each of the main swing states conducted between September 28 and October 8 shows that Trump is narrowly ahead in North Carolina (46 to 45 percent). In addition, he is narrowly ahead in Pennsylvania (46 to 45 percent).

However, in that same poll Harris has a slight lead over Trump in four of the seven election battleground states including Arizona (47 percent to 45), Michigan (47 percent to 45), Wisconsin (46 percent to 45) and Georgia (46 percent to 45).

It is thought that Harris’ clearest path to victory in November would be to win the three blue wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Trump’s most efficient path to 270 Electoral College votes would be to win the Sun Belt swing states of North Carolina and Georgia and flip Pennsylvania.