Kamala Harris Could Beat Donald Trump in Florida, Ex-RNC Chair Says

Former Republican National Committee (RNC) chair Michael Steele doesn’t think winning Florida in this year’s election is off the table for Vice President Kamala Harris, writing in an MSNBC opinion piece on Friday that a “late-breaking group” of voters could swing the state in her favor.

Steele, who served as RNC chair from 2009 to 2011 and is a vocal critic of former President Donald Trump, wrote on Friday that “intentional voters” can “change the political landscape dramatically in short order,” adding that it’s “especially likely in the 2024 election, which has seen a lot of tumult so far.”

Steele, who is also a co-host of MSNBC’s The Weekend, described this group as voters who might share their candidate preference months before the election, often echoing recent talking points or campaign ads, but become more engaged as Election Day approaches, solidifying their support in the final stretch.

He noted how President Joe Biden’s unprecedented withdrawal from the presidential race in late July and endorsement of Harris led to a spike in voter registration, with 40,000 newly registered voters within 48 hours, according to Vote.org.

He also pointed to how singer Taylor Swift’s endorsement of Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, led to more than 337,826 unique link visits to Vote.org, “That’s a large group of potential voters who were quickly activated and are not likely to be casting their ballot for Trump.”

Trump, the GOP presidential nominee, is favored in Florida, where he is officially a resident, having won the state in the past two elections, 2016 and 2020. However, the state previously went blue, voting for former President Barack Obama twice. FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate state poll shows Trump up 4 percentage points in the state, 49.7 percent to Harris’ 45.7 percent, while The Hill aggregate poll shows Trump with a 2.4 percent lead, 49.2 percent to Harris’ 46.8 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s campaign and Harris’ campaign for comment via email on Friday.

Meanwhile, Florida ballots will feature several measures that Steele says, “align with the Harris-Walz agenda.”

Florida Amendment 4 will appear on the ballot, which if a 60 percent supermajority votes for, will ensure abortions are legal “before viability” of the fetus as determined by a patient’s health care provider. The state’s current law restricts abortions after six weeks.

Harris has said she supports eliminating the Senate filibuster to help bring back abortion rights that existed under Roe v. Wade, which was overturned by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2022. During the vice-presidential debate earlier this week when Ohio Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz discussed the topic of abortion, Trump posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, that “everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it.”

Another ballot initiative, Amendment 3, set to appear before Florida voters this election would legalize recreational cannabis, an amendment Trump has said he would vote “yes” on.

“To be clear, I’m not saying that Harris will outright win Georgia, North Carolina or Florida —or even that she’ll win at all. What I am saying is that the polls can’t yet capture what these late deciders intend to do,” Steele concluded his opinion piece.

The race is North Carolina is extremely tight with The New York Times aggregate poll showing Trump ahead by 1 percentage point, at 49 percent to Harris’ 48 percent. The Hill’s aggregate finds an even closer margin, with Trump leading by 0.8 percent, 49.1 percent to Harris 48.3.

In Georgia, The Hill shows an even tighter margin, with Harris trailing Trump by 0.7 percent, 47.6 percent to Trump’s 48.3 percent. The Times aggregate finds Trump leading by 1 percent, 49 percent compared to Harris’ 48 percent.

Polls often better reflect the popular vote than the likely outcome of the Electoral College, as seen in former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign.