Kamala Harris Ranks 6th in 2028 Betting Odds as 3 Rivals Take Early Lead
July 21, 2025
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Polymarket kicked off its betting odds for the 2028 Democratic presidential primary last week, and former Vice President Kamala Harris is trailing five other Democratic candidates as of Monday.
Newsweek reached out to Harris’ team for comment via her press contact form.
Why It Matters
In just a matter of days, more than $600,000 has been bet on Democratic candidates’ chances of winning in the 2028 primary. Although the election is still years away, candidates are making moves like traveling to early-voting South Carolina to build support among primary voters or fundraising for potential campaigns.
The Democratic Party could be holding the most open primary in years, particularly depending on whether Harris decides to run for president again or seek the governorship in her home state of California, as no other candidate has a clear, consistent lead in polling.
What to Know
Polymarket betting odds give California Governor Gavin Newsom the best chance of becoming the party’s nominee at 21 percent. Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite among progressives, follows at 17 percent.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, whose decision not to run for statewide office in Michigan fueled speculation he will run for the White House, has a 13 percent chance of winning the nomination, according to Polymarket.
Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro has a 6 percent chance, while Maryland Governor Wes Moore and Harris both have a 5 percent chance. As of early Monday afternoon, it cost slightly more to bet on Moore than on Harris.
Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff and Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear each had a 4 percent chance of becoming the party’s nominee in the early betting odds.
Although Harris trails Polymarket odds, she still has a polling lead over other candidates in most surveys. However, she has not confirmed she plans to run and is also speculated to be considering a gubernatorial run—it’s unclear whether or not her odds would increase if she chooses against that run. A decision is expected to come toward the end of the summer.
The latest McLaughlin poll showed Harris with a lead. Twenty-five percent of respondents said they planned to support her, compared to nine percent for Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez and eight percent for Buttigieg. However, that still marked her lowest vote share in a McLaughlin poll. In June, for instance, the pollster found that 30 percent of respondents would support her.
The McLaughlin poll surveyed 1,000 general election voters from July 9 to July 14, 2025.
On the other hand, a new AtlasIntel poll found that 27 percent of Democrats leaned toward Buttigieg, 19 percent toward Ocasio-Cortez, 16 percent toward Newsom and 15 percent toward Harris.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the White House in Washington, D.C. on July 22, 2024. Former Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the White House in Washington, D.C. on July 22, 2024. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
That poll surveyed 1,935 respondents from July 13 to July 18, 2025, and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Polymarket also found that Democrats have a 55 percent chance of winning the presidency in 2028 and that Vice President JD Vance has an early lead in the Republican primary. Polymarket correctly predicted Trump as the victor in last November’s presidential race.
What People Are Saying
Kamala Harris, speaking about her plans earlier this year while visiting Los Angeles sites impacted by wildfires: “My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them…I am here and would be here regardless of the office I hold, because it is the right thing to do, which is to show up in your community and thank the folks who are on the ground.”
Democratic influencer Harry Sisson wrote to X: “Polymarket just launched their 2028 election and nominee markets and Gavin Newsom is ahead. He would be a terrific nominee and an amazing president. MAGA wouldn’t have a chance after Trump’s disastrous presidency.”
What Happens Next
The first votes of the primary will not be cast until early 2028, and most candidates are unlikely to announce whether they are running until after the 2026 midterm elections.
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