Kamala Harris Remains the Wild Card as Katie Porter Enters CA Governor Race

Former Democratic Representative Katie Porter’s early lead in the California gubernatorial race could be erased if Vice President Kamala Harris chooses to jump into the campaign

Newsweek reached out to Porter’s campaign for comment via email.

Why It Matters

Porter, a Democrat, announced her bid to replace term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, on Tuesday.

Whoever ends up winning the governorship will be in charge of the most populous state in the country and have authority over key issues like housing and water management in a state that has been hit hard by a housing crisis and recent wildfires.

If Harris decides to run for California governor, as many are speculating, it would give her a shot at a political comeback after losing the presidential race last year. Despite her defeat, many Democrats still view her favorably, blaming her loss on other factors, such as former President Joe Biden’s late decision to drop out of the race. It could give her a platform to implement key campaign priorities, and potentially a stepping stone for a future presidential bid.

What to Know

Even though the election is more than a year and a half away, more than a dozen candidates are already running in hopes of establishing an early connection with voters in the Golden State.

Porter on Tuesday became the latest Democrat to join. She is a former member of Congress from Orange County who served in the House of Representatives from 2019 to 2024. She left the House for an unsuccessful Senate bid which she lost to fellow Democrat Adam Schiff.

Early polls suggest Porter would hold a slight lead over other candidates so long as Harris stays out.

California uses a non-partisan primary system. This means that in the primary, the two candidates who receive the most votes, regardless of their political affiliation, advance to the general election.

A Capitol Weekly poll, conducted from February 3 to February 7 among 1,200 registered voters, showed Porter receiving the most support of any candidate in a race without Harris.

Twenty-six percent of respondents said they would vote for Porter in the primary. Republican businessman John Cox placed second at 21 percent, while all other candidates polled in the single digits.

But when Harris was included in the poll, the race becomes scrambled. The former vice president takes a lead over Porter, with 23 percent of respondents saying they’d support the former vice president. Cox again placed second with 21 percent, while Porter placed third with 16 percent. Other candidates remained in the single digits.

An Emerson College poll, conducted among 469 registered voters from February 10 to February 11, showed similar dynamics.

Notably, the Emerson poll only included Democratic candidates. While it doesn’t account for Republican and third-party dynamics, it’s still useful to show how Democrats are feeling about each candidate. California is a deep blue state, so whichever candidate Democrats end up rallying behind would be the favorite next November.

Porter said in December that Harris entering the race would have a “near field-clearing effect” for Democrats, but did not say whether a Harris run would inform her own decision. For her part, Harris has reportedly put a self-imposed deadline to decide by the end of the summer.

Longtime Democratic strategist Darry A. Sragow told Newsweek that early polls are “essentially meaningless,” and that it’s too early to know exactly what will happen.

“All they are measuring is voters’ familiarity with a particular candidate,” he said. “They don’t begin to suggest what would happen if there is a competitive campaign. In a competitive campaign, voters are going to hear a lot of negative information about candidates as well of positive information.”

Harris and Porter are both well known to California voters, he said, which explains their early advantages.

If Harris enters the race and clears most of the field except for Porter, it’s “going to be difficult to predict the outcome,” Sragow said. While Harris has held statewide office in the state before, Porter is likely to be a candidate who has a “substantial fundraising base,” key to competing in a large state like California.

“If it becomes a Porter-Harris race, maybe with some other people in there, based on early polling you’d go ‘Well, Vice President Harris would win,” he said. “But you cant be so sure.”

Tom Hogen-Esch, a political science professor at California State University—Northridge, told Newsweek that Porter’s chances “really depend on the mood of the electorate.”

“If this race was taking place four years ago, you could easily imagine Katie Porter and another Democrat – for example Kamala Harris – finishing in the top two and then meeting in the general election,” he said. “But a lot has changed in a short period of time and one wonders whether the electorate will be in the mood for two progressive Democrats in the runoff.”

He said Harris would likely take a “more centrist approach” in a potential gubernatorial campaign, while Porter would likely run as a progressive.

Hogen-Esch said questions still remain about whether a candidate from the center-right, such as Rick Caruso, will emerge. Caruso, a billionaire developer, gained name recognition after his 2022 Los Angeles mayoral campaign, which he lost to Karen Bass. Caruso has since been outspoken about Bass’ leadership in the wake of the fires that devastated parts of Los Angeles earlier this year.

“My sense is that there is definitely a pathway to the general election by running from the center right in this race which might end up squeezing out a popular Democrat on the left,” he said.

Sragow said whether Caruso runs is one of many “unknown” factors in the election, but he has access to funds that would allow him to compete.

What Has Kamala Harris Said About Running for Governor?

Harris has been fairly quiet about what her next political move could be amid speculation about a potential gubernatorial run. She has also been floated as a potential presidential candidate for 2028.

In January, she shrugged off questions about a possible gubernatorial run while visiting areas impacted by the L.A. fires.

“I have been home for two weeks and three days. My plans are to be in touch with my community, to be in touch with the leaders and figure out what I can do to support them,” she said.

Harris has said after her defeat in November she is “staying in this fight.” Politico later reported on Harris’ intention to make a decision by the end of the summer in remarks at a pre-Oscars party in Los Angeles.

She had an extensive carer in California politics before becoming vice president, previously serving as San Francisco district attorney, attorney general and senator.

What People Are Saying

California Attorney General Rob Bonta to Politico: “Her name recognition, her favorables, her ability to run a successful campaign would have the impact of clearing the field on the Democratic side. If anyone wants to stay in, will I tell them, ‘You should leave because she’s clearing the field?’ Absolutely not. They can run. I think they’ll lose, and I will support her.”

Porter in her campaign announcement: “What California needs now is a little bit of hope and whole lot of grit. Fresh blood and new ideas. And leaders with the backbone to fight for what’s right. That’s why I’m running for governor.”

What Happens Next

Californians will head to their polls for the state’s primary in June 2026, and more candidates are expected to make announcements over the next year or so. Cook Political Report classifies California’s governor race as Solid Democratic, meaning it is “not considered competitive and [is] not likely to become closely contested.”

But the state’s politics are changing, due in part to what is widely seen as the failures of Democrat-run cities like San Francisco and Los Angeles. California Democrats have about 18 months to change that narrative before voters head to the polls.