Malibu fire fueled by ‘extraordinary, extreme’ winds. How long will dangerous conditions last?

The Franklin fire burning in Malibu is driven by dangerous winds, dry conditions and low humidity, which have combined to allow the blaze to explode.

Conditions

At around the time the fire ignited, there were gusts of up to 65 mph reported. By around 3:30 a.m., the winds were weakening slightly, with gusts in the 40-mph range, said National Weather Service meteorologist Todd Hall.

Unlike during the 2018 Woolsey fire, water-dropping aircraft have been able to fly overnight.

But Hall said patterns seen in past Santa Ana wind events “suggest winds should ramp up around daybreak,” which occurs around 6:50 a.m.

Relative humidity Tuesday morning was less than 5% in the area of the fire — extraordinarily dry.

The National Weather Service office had issued a rare “Particularly Dangerous Situation” red flag warning to last through 2 p.m. Tuesday in Los Angeles and Ventura counties.

A high wind warning is expected to last through 1 p.m. Tuesday.

And a regular red flag warning — which means the National Weather Service has high confidence that dangerous fire conditions will exist — is expected to last through Wednesday afternoon.

Areas within the Particularly Dangerous Situation include large swaths of Ventura County, such as Thousand Oaks, Ventura, Oxnard, Fillmore and Ojai, as well as places like Malibu, Canoga Park, Santa Clarita and Acton in L.A. County.

The area is particularly dry. Since the water year began on Oct. 1, just 0.14 inches of rain has fallen in downtown Los Angeles. That’s sharply below the average for this time of the season, when 1.87 inches on average has already fallen.

There’s not too much hope for rain for Los Angeles and Ventura counties in the next week.

“We’re not seeing any significant rain prospects for L.A. area for the next week,” said National Weather Service meteorologist Robbie Munroe said. “We’ll probably remain dry.”

Tuesday forecast

The Particularly Dangerous Situation fire warning is in effect through Tuesday at 2 p.m.
The red flag fire warning is in effect through Wednesday afternoon.
The Franklin fire has burned at least 1,800 acres.
The eastern half of Malibu was ordered evacuated, and the rest of the city was under an evacuation warning. Some 6,000 people live in the area ordered evacuated, firefighters said — most of the city’s population of about 11,000 residents. About 2,000 structures are affected by the mandatory evacuation order. Pepperdine University has asked people on campus to shelter in place.