Medicaid Cuts Could Cause 30,000 Deaths a Year, Group Warns

Republican plans to reduce the federal contribution to Medicaid expansion could lead to tens of thousands of additional deaths, according to a new report from the Center for American Progress (CAP).

Why It Matters

As of October, more than 72 million people across the country had health coverage through Medicaid, including children, the elderly and people with disabilities—although coverage varies widely by state, both in terms of benefits and eligibility criteria.

While President Donald Trump has vowed not to slash Medicaid, and polling indicates that the majority of Americans view the program favorably, House Republicans passed a budget resolution earlier this month that analysts said would result in unavoidable cuts to the health care program.

The budget reconciliation bill does not directly mention cuts to Medicaid, but it instructs the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, which has jurisdiction over Medicaid, to slash the Department of Health and Human Services’ budget by $880 billion over 10 years—sparking concerns about cuts to the nation’s largest health insurance program.

What To Know

On Wednesday, CAP reported that if Congress reduced the enhanced federal medical assistance percentage (FMAP) and states reacted by ending their Medicaid expansions in 2026, an estimated 15.9 million people would lose their coverage.

Of those, 10.8 million would become uninsured, CAP said, citing estimates from the Urban Institute. The think tank also referenced a 2017 study by health economist Benjamin D. Sommers that found Medicaid expansion was linked to saving one life annually for every 239 to 316 adults who gained insurance.

“Applying the more conservative end of Sommers’ range to Urban’s projection of 10.8 million more uninsured, CAP estimates that cutting the enhanced FMAP for expansion enrollees would lead to about 34,200 deaths each year,” the report said.

“This is an important reminder that when politicians in Washington debate sweeping Medicaid cuts, they aren’t just talking about dollars and cents,” Andrea Ducas, the vice president of health policy at CAP, told Newsweek on Wednesday. “Slashing the program will actually rip people’s health care away.”

Medicaid, which is jointly funded by states and the federal government, is run by states under federal rules. The FMAP determines the federal share, ranging from 50 percent to more than 75 percent, with poorer states receiving more. Under the Affordable Care Act, expansion states receive a permanent 90 percent FMAP for the expansion population. FMAP significantly affects state budgets, with higher rates easing financial pressure and helping states provide broader Medicaid coverage.

If Congress reduces the enhanced FMAP, states may find it financially unsustainable to continue Medicaid expansion and drop out, potentially leading to millions losing coverage. Twelve states have trigger laws in place that would automatically end expansion or require changes if the federal match rate were to drop.

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What People Are Saying

The Center for American Progress said in its report on Wednesday: “Congressional Republicans are considering proposals that would severely undermine the Medicaid program, threatening coverage for millions of Americans. Whether through reduced federal funding or punitive administrative barriers such as work reporting requirements, these measures would lead to widespread coverage losses and, by conservative estimates, tens of thousands of preventable deaths each year.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican from Louisiana, previously told Newsweek regarding the Republican budget: “Through budget reconciliation, House Republicans will strengthen, sustain, and secure Medicaid so we can preserve it for the vulnerable American populations it was designed to serve. Unlike our Democrat colleagues, we are committed to making commonsense reforms and rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse to make Medicaid work more efficiently and effectively.”

Representative Austin Scott, a Republican from Georgia, told Fox Business on Monday: “The federal government is paying 90 percent of the Medicaid expansion. What we have talked about is moving that 90 percent level of the expansion back toward the more traditional level. … Nobody would be kicked off Medicaid as long as governors decided they wanted to continue to fund the program.”