MLB Player Props: 3 Picks for Wednesday’s Divisional Series Games
October 9, 2024
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For the first two or so months of the year, Suarez was among the best pitchers in the entire MLB and a top three betting favorite to win the Cy Young, but, unfortunately for him, he has had a dramatic fall-off since then.
He had multiple stints on the injured list and never was able to recapture his magic from the beginning of the season.
In the last two months, he has a HR/9 of 1.94 against right-handed hitters, allowing batters to hit .313 off of him, with an ISO rate of .229 and a SIERA of 4.33.
Lindor, meanwhile, hits for more power when facing lefties (.282 ISO rate against LHP, .208 against RHP), and has come close to sending one yard. Yesterday, in his first at-bat of the game, he sent a flyout 387 feet at 100.9 mph off the bat.
He comes through with a home run today, as does his teammate Mark Vientos, who is red-hot at the plate and fresh off hitting two home runs in Game 2.
Francisco Lindor Home Run (+475): 0.25 Units
Mark Vientos Home Run (+400) Caesars: 0.25 Units
Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+300) FanDuel
The Dodgers have not confirmed who their starting pitcher is going to be tonight, but all reports indicate that it is going to be a bullpen game. Regardless, as long as prime Pedro Martinez is not taking the mound for the Padres, then we feel pretty good about Tatis Jr. hitting a home run.
There is no batter on the earth as hot as he is at the plate, and he remains a good home run bet night after night.
Since Game 1 of this Padres-Dodgers series, Tatis Jr. has hit a whopping eight baseballs with 100-plus mph exit velocity, in only three games.
He did not hit a home run in Game 1, but he managed to hit two in Game 2 and another one last night in Game 3. He was close to hitting a second home run last night, as he had a lineout that traveled 389 feet and was 104.6 mph off the bat.
His stats in the playoffs would not be believable if they were from MLB The Show, let alone happening in real life. Through five playoff games, he is hitting:
.556 average
1.333 wOBA
.778 ISO rate
1.970 OPS
The baseball essentially looks like a beach ball to him when he is at the plate, and we want to keep riding those flames as long as he continues to hit rockets.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+300): 0.25 Units
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+360) FanDuel
For our final home run pick of the day, let’s go with another big name in Shohei Ohtani.
He hit a home run in the first game of this series, but has gone without one in the past two games. With that said, he has still been hitting the ball hard. Not quite at the level of Tatis Jr. (because nobody is), or even Francisco Lindor, but it is not as though Ohtani has stopped hitting missiles.
Yesterday, he had a 385-foot flyout that left the bat at 103.5 mph exit velocity. Overall, in this playoff series against the Padres, Ohtani has a 15.38 percent barrel rate and a 57 percent fly-ball rate.
On paper, the matchup against Dylan Cease does not seem like a pitching matchup that we would want to target, but Ohtani has had a ton of success against Cease in the past.
In nine at-bats against each other in the last two years, Ohtani has hit two home runs and a double off Cease. That home run, by the way, happened a mere four days ago in Game 1 of this playoff series.
So, not only does Ohtani already have success against Cease, but it is fair to wonder how sharp Cease is going to be coming off of only three days’ rest.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+360): 0.25 Units
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