Nate Silver Predicts Path for Kamala Harris to ‘Probably’ Win Election

Pollster Nate Silver predicted on Saturday a path for Vice President Kamala Harris to “probably” win the November 5 election through the so-called “Blue Wall.”

The “Blue Wall” is made up of 18 states and the District of Columbia that has voted for the Democratic presidential candidate in most elections since 1992. The Blue Wall states include: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington state, as well as the important battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee, flipped Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in his first presidential run in 2016 against his Democratic opponent former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. As the 2024 campaign season winds down, Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, and Trump are heavily pursuing swing states—including the three that are a part of the Blue Wall that Trump won in 2016 but lost to President Joe Biden in 2020—to win enough electoral votes for the presidency.

Silver, founder of ABC News’ poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, has created his own presidential model, predicting various outcomes of this year’s election. Silver is no longer affiliated with ABC News or FiveThirtyEight.

In a post on his Substack blog on Saturday, he wrote, “If Harris wins the three Blue Wall States, she probably (although not certainly) wins.”

Silver said if Trump wins Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, “it doesn’t technically clinch the White House for him, but it probably does for all practical purposes—Harris would have to sweep all the other battlegrounds.”

The other battleground states in this election are Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.

“If they’re split, there are more good scenarios for Trump than bad ones, but the map would get very interesting,” he added.

Newsweek reached out to Harris and Trump’s campaigns via email for comment.

How Are the Candidates Doing in Michigan?

Silver said in his Substack post on Saturday that Harris has a 56 percent chance of winning Michigan.

As of Sunday, Harris has a 0.7-point lead over Trump (48.1 to 47.4 percent), according to Silver’s polling averages.

FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages show an even smaller gap between Harris and Trump. The vice president has 47.6 percent of voter support compared to Trump’s 47.3 percent as of Sunday.

How Are the Candidates Doing in Pennsylvania?

Silver gave Harris a 46 percent chance of winning Pennsylvania in Saturday’s Substack post.

As of Sunday, Trump is leading Harris in the Keystone State by 0.3 points (48.3 to 48 percent), according to Silver’s model.

FiveThirtyEight also has Trump slightly ahead of Harris on Sunday (48 to 47.7 percent).

How Are the Candidates Doing in Wisconsin?

Haris has a 53 percent chance of winning Wisconsin, according to Silver’s Saturday Substack post.

The vice president is 0.5 points ahead of Trump (48.5 to 48 percent), according to Silver’s numbers from Sunday.

Harris’ lead shrinks when looking at FiveThirtyEight’s numbers from Sunday, which has Harris with 47.9 percent of voter support and Trump with 47.7 percent.

How Are the Candidates Doing Nationally?

National polls just predict the popular vote, which as Silver put it Saturday “is merely a beauty contest” because of America’s Electoral College system, which awards the presidency to the candidate with 270 or more electoral votes (which are distributed to states based on its number of senators and representatives) rather than the overall number of votes cast across the country. However, national polls can help to anticipate trends in state polls.

Silver’s presidential model has Harris leading Trump nationally by 1.2 points (48.6 to 47.4 percent) as of Sunday. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has the vice president ahead with 48 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 46.7 percent.

How Are the Candidates Doing in the Other Swing States?

Trump is leading Harris in North Carolina (48.9 to 47.6 percent), Georgia (49 to 47.6 percent) and Arizona (49.4 to 47.3 percent), according to Silver’s polling averages from Sunday. The two are tied in Nevada with 47.9 percent of voter support, Silver’s model says.

In FiveThirtyEight’s polling averages from Sunday, Trump is again ahead of Harris in North Carolina (48.5 to 47.1 percent), Georgia (48.7 to 47 percent) and Arizona (48.8 to 46.7 percent). The former president also has a slight edge in Nevada (47.6 to 47.3 percent), FiveThirtyEight says.