NBA Player Props: 3 NBA Player Props for Thursday (October 24)

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This is not what you would have thought with Victor Wembanyama patrolling the paint, but because he would sell out to block shots as opposed to sticking with the big man rolling, that led to a ton of lobs and easy dump-offs to the roll man for the Spurs’ opponents.

This is the perfect matchup for Doncic, who ran the fourth-most PnRs in the NBA last year. He also averaged the fourth-most drives last year, and he led the NBA in assists off of drives specifically.

We also get the benefit of Doncic kicking it out to talented shooters after the Mavs revamped their backcourt around Doncic and Kyrie Irving.

They added Klay Thompson and Quentin Grimes, two players who excel at catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, alongside P.J. Washington, who came alive in the playoffs from downtown for the Mavericks.

Last year, in four games against the Spurs, Doncic went over this number three times, with an absurd 16 assists in one of them. He also averaged 18.75 potential assists in those four games, which is the significantly more important number.

The only time he played the Spurs after the All-Star break, after the Mavs had acquired Washington and Daniel Gafford, he had 16 assists out of 20 potential assists. It would not be a total shock to see something similar to that tonight.

Luka Doncic 10+ assists (-105): 1 Unit

Donte DiVincenzo 4+ Assists (+195) FanDuel

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 p.m. ET

After getting burned with DiVincenzo’s assists prop on opening night, we are going right back to this play again for tonight. The logic is the same tonight, as DiVincenzo had the exact role we wanted him to have in that game.

It was just brutal luck that he did not get that fourth assist. He had three halfway through the first quarter, but he did not get a single assist the rest of the way. Tough luck, but it was the right process, so we are going right back to it tonight.

The NBA unfortunately has not released tracking data yet, so we don’t know how many potential assists he had in the season opener, but he did almost everything we wanted him to in a perfect continuation of his role from the preseason.

He ended the game with only the three assists, but he was third on the Timberwolves in total passes, only behind Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley.

For those of you that missed Tuesday’s article, the logic behind DiVincenzo’s assists prop was based on him being the backup point guard for the Timberwolves, a role that they gave him in the preseason.

In the preseason, he played 20 or more minutes three times, and he had four assists in each of those games.

After playing 31 minutes in the first game of the season and having a 27 percent assist rate, there is no reason to be scared off of DiVincenzo’s assists even after a brutal beat the first time we played it.

Donte DiVincenzo 4+ assists (+195) FanDuel: 0.50 Units

Christian Braun 2+ Made 3’s (+220) FanDuel

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets, 10 p.m. ET

This price on Braun to make two or more 3-pointers is based off of last year’s data, when he played around 20 minutes per game and only attempted two 3-pointers per game, but things are going to be different this season.

He is taking the starting spot from Kentavious Caldwell-Pope after the Nuggets let KCP walk in free agency.

So, we should not go off of last year’s data, because he is going to have a completely different role.

In the preseason, he admittedly did not shoot a high percentage from deep, but he was attempting the shots, and that is the most important thing. To drill down even deeper, he took the most corner 3’s on the Nuggets this preseason, which is why we are on him to make at least two 3-pointers in this matchup against the Thunder.

In 2023-2024, no team in the NBA allowed more corner 3’s than the Thunder. This has been a running theme with this Thunder coaching staff, as OKC led the league in opponent corner 3PA last year and allowed the second-most the year prior.

Another part of OKC’s defensive philosophy is if they do not respect a player’s shot, they will leave that player wide-open.

Last year, they allowed the fourth-most open 3PAs, which the NBA defines as between 4 and 6 feet of space.

So, the guess here is that the Thunder are going to leave Braun open in the corner. He showed a willingness to take these shots in the preseason, and we just need him to make two to cash this juicy plus-money banger, which is absolutely worth a sprinkle.

Christian Braun 2+ made 3s (+220): 0.35 Units

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