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With that in mind, this is a great matchup for Mitchell against the Lakers. The Lakers do have a good defense, but the way you beat them is the exact way that Donovan Mitchell plays.

The Lakers don’t allow a lot from the 3-point line or at the rim, but they will allow players to pull up from two-point range. On the season, the Lakers have been allowing the fourth-most pull-up shot attempts, and the second-most common shots against them have been pull-ups.

Mitchell, meanwhile, has scored the 13th-most points in the NBA from pull-ups, but every single player above him has played more minutes than him, including many by a significant amount.

While Mitchell has only averaged 30.1 minutes per game, nine of the 12 players above him in pull-up scoring are averaging 34 minutes or more per game.

Teams have not run a ton of pick-and-roll (PnR) against the Lakers this season, but they are scoring at the ninth-highest rate when they do run it. The Lakers are also allowing the sixth-most points per game via isolation and the fifth-most points per possession off of iso.

Look for Donovan Mitchell to show out at home in a big game against the Lakers.

Donovan Mitchell over 25.5 points (-105): 1 Unit

Jordan Poole 25+ Points (-105) FanDuel

Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards, 7 p.m. ET

With no Kyle Kuzma, the guess here is that Jordan Poole is going to shoot a zillion times, and he has an excellent matchup to blow up against this horrible Hawks defense.

These two teams just played on Monday, and Poole went over this number with 26 points. Also keep in mind that Kyle Kuzma played 40 minutes in that game, and he is out for tonight.

This year, Poole has only spent three minutes on the floor without Kuzma, so we do not have a ton of data to go off of, but, per RotoWire, he averaged 25.7 points per 36 minutes in those three minutes.

Without Kuzma, expect Poole to play for around 36 minutes after he logged 32 minutes in two of Washington’s first three games this year.

This is also an excellent matchup against the struggling Atlanta D, as mentioned earlier.

So far this season, the Hawks are allowing the most points to PnR ball handlers in the NBA. It’s early, but they have allowed 27.5 points per game, with the next-closest team at just 23.5 ppg.

Unsurprisingly, Poole runs the most PnR on the Wizards and scores the most points on the team as the PnR ball handler.

Kuzma is second on the team in that statistic, which is another reason why we should see increased usage tonight for Jordan Poole.

Jordan Poole 25+ points (-105): FanDuel

Jaylen Brown 1st Quarter Points (+106) Caesars

Boston Celtics vs. Indiana Pacers, 7 p.m. ET

Brown has admittedly started slow in the four games so far this season, but this is still an absurd line at 4.5, and it’s even more absurd at plus-money.

Brown has gone over this number in two of four games so far this year, but the most important thing here is his volume of early field-goal attempts (FGA).

He has had at least five first-quarter FGA in three of Boston’s four games, with at least two 1Q 3-point attempts (3PA) in three of four as well.

The first-quarter minutes for Brown have been wonky to start the year. He played eight 1Q minutes in two games, but in two others, he only played around six 1Q minutes.

In the regular season last year, he averaged 9.4 minutes per game, so the guess here is that those six-minute opening quarters this year are more of an anamoly than anything.

Speaking of last year, Brown was a fast starter. He scored at least five points in the first quarter in 80 percent of Boston’s regular-season games last year, cashing this prop in 53 of 68 games.

That includes doing it in every single regular-season game against the Pacers in ’23-24, with at least six 1Q points in all of those games.

The Pacers defense was horrible at stopping isolation scorers, and guys who could drive to the rim in general, and it seems as though that has not changed this year.

So far, the Pacers have allowed the second-most points via isolation (ISO) in the NBA. Tatum has scored the most ISO points on the Celtics, and the second-most overall in the NBA. Brown is not far behind him, with the second-most ISO points on the Celtics and the 12th-most ISO points in the league.

With that said, Brown has done well when he has gotten the opportunity, averaging the sixth-most points per possession in the league when running isolation.

The difference between him and Tatum, of course, is the number they have to hit in this game. Tatum’s 1Q over/under is 8.5, so we will gladly ride with Brown at a much lower number.

Jaylen Brown over 6.5 1st quarter points (+106): 1 Unit

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