A new poll from Fox News shows Democratic nominee for New Jersey Governor Mikie Sherrill up 7 percentage points over Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli five days before Election Day.
Why It Matters
The New Jersey gubernatorial election stands as one of the nation’s most closely watched races, with implications for national party strategy and the 2026 midterms.
The contest could also be viewed as a key litmus test for sentiment toward President Donald Trump in the Northeast and a potential indicator of Republican momentum in traditionally Democratic strongholds.
New Jersey has not elected a Republican governor since 2013, when the Garden State reelected former Governor Chris Christie, or voted for a Republican in a presidential race since 1988, when it backed former President George H.W. Bush. A shift in voter sentiment could impact both parties’ approaches beyond 2025.
What To Know
In the poll released on Thursday, Sherrill has 52 percent of the vote opposed to Ciattarelli’s 45 percent. The poll surveyed 956 likely voters from October 24 to October 28 and has a 3 percent margin of error.
The poll shows a shift from an earlier survey by Fox News this month that had Sherrill at 50 percent and Ciattarelli with 45 percent.
Thursday’s poll shows that 64 percent of Sherrill supporters say their vote is to express opposition to Trump, while 35 percent of Ciattarelli supporters say their vote is to express support for the president.
“It’s a cliché, but it’s true, this race is all about turnout, so the big question is whether Trump supporters show up when he’s not on the ballot,” Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, said in the survey. “Sherrill’s supporters seem like they are going to turn out, but the evidence is mixed for those backing Ciattarelli. If the MAGA base comes around during this final weekend, the Democratic advantage narrows considerably.”
Sherrill’s favorability is 54 percent in the new poll, compared to 51 percent earlier this month. Ciattarelli’s favorability is 46 percent compared to 48 percent earlier this month.
What People Are Saying
Trump, on Truth Social this month: “Why would anyone vote for New Jersey and Virginia Gubernatorial Candidates, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, when they want transgender for everybody, men playing in women’s sports, High Crime, and the most expensive Energy prices almost anywhere in the World? VOTE REPUBLICAN for massive Energy Cost reductions, large scale Tax Cuts, and basic Common Sense! Under President Trump, ME, Gasoline will come down to approximately $2 a Gallon, very soon! With the Democrats, you’ll be paying $4, $5, and $6 a Gallon, and your Electric and other Energy costs will, likewise, SOAR. VOTE REPUBLICAN FOR A GREAT AND VERY AFFORDABLE LIFE. All you’ll get from voting Democrat is unrelentingly High Crime, Energy prices through the roof, men playing in women’s sports, and HEARTACHE!”
Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro, to Newsweek when asked if it is unusual for Trump to play a factor into voters’ decision-making in New Jersey: “It is not unusual. These off-year elections after a presidential election in particular are often at least somewhat a signal of dissatisfaction with the performance of the party in power in the White House. That is why these elections are being looked at closely nationally. They have potential implications for the midterm elections.”
Ciattarelli, on X Thursday: “After 8 years of Phil Murphy’s failures, New Jersey families are paying the price every single day. Failed schools. Handcuffed police officers. Overdevelopment destroying our communities. Higher taxes crushing working families. And my opponent? Endorsed every. single. one of these disasters. I’m running to make New Jersey affordable again. Safe again. We need police officers who can do their jobs — not politicians tying their hands. We need policies that help families — not hurt them. The choice is clear: more of the same failed policies that got us here, or real change that puts New Jersey families first. What’s it going to be, New Jersey? Make your voice heard. Vote for change! Early voting is open until 8pm tonight, and back again tomorrow at 10am.”
Sherrill, on X early Thursday: “The difference between me and Jack is clear as day. I’m going to serve YOU while he only cares to serve the president.”
What Happens Next
The New Jersey gubernatorial election is scheduled for November 4. Early voting is underway across the state. Both campaigns are focused on boosting turnout among undecided voters, independents and key demographics.
The outcome will determine not only the successor to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy but may also set the tone for party strategies in the 2026 congressional midterms.
