New Swing State Poll Shows Key Shifts for Trump and Harris

The latest swing state polling from Quinnipiac University revealed new shifts in two states critical for Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump to secure in November.

In a survey released Wednesday, Trump was found ahead in the battleground state of Georgia by 7 points (52 percent to 45 percent) just weeks ahead of Election Day. In a separate poll conducted in North Carolina, Harris was leading by just 2 points (49 percent to 47 percent) meaning the state is still up for grabs.

The surveys were conducted between October 10 and 14. The poll in Georgia had a sample size of 1,328 likely voters and a margin of error of 2.7 percent. The North Carolina poll was based on the responses of 1,031 likely voters and a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

The race to the White House is incredibly tight between Harris and Trump and will likely come down to a handful of swing states where preliminary polling has been the tightest. Georgia and North Carolina are both in that category, alongside Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

President Joe Biden flipped six of the seven swing states in 2020. Trump secured North Carolina four years ago.

Shifts in Georgia

Wednesday’s polling in the Peach State is a sign of momentum for Trump. In the same poll released at the start of the month, Trump was leading Harris 50 percent to 44 percent. The month prior, in a poll released by Quinnipiac University on September 9, the former president led the state 49 percent to 46 percent.

The results Wednesday are one of Trump’s biggest leads in the state so far. According to tracking from FiveThirtyEight, the former president is ahead by 1.7 percentage points on average across statewide polling as of Wednesday. The site RealClearPolling gives Trump an even smaller lead, finding him 0.9 points ahead of Harris on average.

FiveThirtyEight’s election model also puts Georgia in the “toss-up” category, giving Trump a 54 percent chance of securing the state’s 16 electoral votes this fall. Harris, per the site’s forecast, has a 46 percent chance.

RealClearPolling also considers Georgia a “toss-up” battle.

Shifts in North Carolina

Meanwhile, in North Carolina, Harris and Trump are practically even, with the former president leading by just 0.4 percentage points on average, per FiveThirtyEight’s tracking.

Wednesday’s survey from Quinnipiac University is also a good sign for Harris, who was losing to the former president by 2 points (49 percent to 47 percent) in the same poll released on October 1.

At the start of September, Harris was ahead by 3 points in the Tar Heel State, leading Trump 49 percent to 46 percent, according to the same poll.

FiveThirtyEight also considers North Carolina a “toss-up” as of Wednesday, with Trump given a 53 percent chance of winning its 16 electoral vote in November. Harris has a 47 percent chance of victory.

RealClearPolling gives Trump a higher lead in North Carolina, finding the former president up 1.2 percentage points on average in the state. But the site also considers North Carolina a “toss-up” between Harris and Trump.

On Wednesday, North Carolina Republican Party communications director Matt Mercer told Newsweek that the party “feels confident North Carolina voters will deliver the state a third time for President Trump” this fall.

“The data doesn’t lie: historic numbers of voters are rejecting the Democratic Party as seen in voter registration trends,” Mercer added over email. “The polling in the state continues to fluctuate but we continue to be encouraged by what we see on the ground.”

An email was also sent to Harris’ campaign for comment.