New York City’s suburbs have experienced an uptick in housing demand from wealthy residents in recent months, according to local real estate agents, as high earners scared off by Zohran Mamdani’s mayoral primary victory look for plan B within a reasonable distance.
One such place is Westchester County, a picturesque suburb just 30 minutes north of the Big Apple. Here, real estate agent Zach and Heather Harrison told Newsweek about what they call the “Mamdani effect.”
Mamdani’s Stunning Ascent
Before this year, Mamdani was hardly a household name. Now, the 33-year-old Democratic Socialist state assemblyman is the man most likely to become New York City’s next mayor.
His stunning victory in the Democratic mayoral primary in June, where he triumphed over former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo and incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, was built on a campaign promising to make the city more affordable for its residents. His most controversial—and most popular among his supporters—ideas include making city buses free for residents, freezing rent, and hiking taxes on the rich.
But while his sudden ascent in the New York City political scene has caused elation among voters otherwise growing disillusioned with the Democratic Party, high-earning residents have shown fear of a likely Mamdani’s victory at the general election.
High-Earners’ Escape From New York
In the immediate aftermath of Mamdani’s primary victory in June, real estate agents in Florida reported a sudden spike in interest for luxury homes in the state from wealthy New Yorkers trying to relocate. Many, they said, were trying to move their assets to a safe place, away from the New York City mayoral candidate’s plans to tax them more heavily.
For those looking for a low-tax environment, fewer places are better than Florida, a state with no income tax that is currently considering eliminating property taxes.
New York City’s income tax currently ranges from 3.078 percent to 3.876 percent, on top of already hefty state and federal taxes. Mamdani has pledged to raise those rates even higher on the top 1 percent—a proposal that has got many wealthy residents to plan their exit.
Not everyone is looking to move as far as Florida, however. Some are looking a lot closer at Westchester, which, with the exception of Yonkers, has no local income tax.
Since August 1, the number of homes for sale going under contract in Westchester County has jumped by 15 percent compared to the same period last year.
Inventory is now down by over 70 percent compared to pre-pandemic levels, and homes are going into bidding wars at an unprecedented rate, according to the Harrison Team at Compass.
“Just this month, we listed a home that received over 70 showings and over 20 offers in just 5 days,” Zach and Heather Harrison told Newsweek.
“The sellers accepted an offer selling for $700,000 over the asking price. That is demand like we’ve never seen before,” they said.
“The spike in activity feels like we’re back in the low interest rate COVID era, but with more urgency. Buyers are trying to lock in their purchases due to uncertainty about the mayoral election.”
The Suburbs Could Be Winning Big
While New Yorkers disillusioned with the city’s high cost of living have always looked at the suburbs as a more affordable, quieter option, the latest figures do show a correlation between Mamdani’s primary victory and the recent growth in demand for housing in Westchester.
“Buyers looking to move to Westchester have consistently cited three major priorities: taxes, safety and wanting more space,” the Harrisons said.
“One of the great things about Westchester is nearly all of our towns have no resident income tax. Several buyers have voiced concern that the NYC resident income tax, which is nearing 4 percent, could increase even higher,” they said.
The Harrisons expect demand to continue rising in the coming months—especially if Mamdani wins.
“If Mamdani wins as the current polls are showing, we would expect the Westchester market to be even stronger through the end of the year and into 2026 with heightened demand,” they said. “If one of the other candidates wins, we would expect the market to normalize.”
Read the full interview with Westchester real estate agents Zach and Heather Harrison:
Are you observing any changes in the Westchester housing market since Mamdani’s primary victory? If so, what changes?
Yes, we are seeing a correlation between his surprise win in the Democratic primary and an uptick in real estate interest in Westchester. Since the summer, many buyers from the city we have taken out to see homes in Westchester have mentioned the Mayoral election as one of the key drivers for their move to the suburbs.
Sales activity in the suburbs has increased since the primary. Since August 1, the number of sales going into contract in Westchester County has increased by over 10 percent compared to the same period last year. The current environment is giving buyers and investors a reason to reconsider their next real estate move, making Westchester a main attraction.
Do you have any examples of the rise in interest for homes in Westchester?
Just this month, we listed a home that received over 70 showings and over 20 offers in just 5 days. The sellers accepted an offer selling for $700,000 over the asking price. That is demand like we’ve never seen before. The spike in activity feels like we’re back in the low interest rate COVID era, but with more urgency. Buyers are trying to lock in their purchases due to uncertainty about the mayoral election.
What kind of buyers are looking for homes?
We represent all types of buyers, from singles to couples to families and investors. A lot of the buyers we are seeing this fall are either already parents of children or preparing to start families soon. Many have mentioned safety and security as their top priorities. While they are not necessarily the only factors, they are definitely part of a larger conversation around quality of life and wanting peace of mind. People are really starting to re-evaluate what they want for themselves and their families, and for many, that means exploring life in the suburbs.
Why Westchester, in particular, is what NYC buyers are looking for?
Buyers looking to move to Westchester have consistently cited three major priorities: taxes, safety and wanting more space. One of the great things about Westchester is nearly all of our towns have no resident income tax. Several buyers have voiced concern that the NYC resident income tax, which is nearing 4 percent, could increase even higher. Safety is also paramount. Buyers looking to become potential residents want to be able to take a walk with their little one or go to the park and feel completely safe and at ease. Space is also important; buyers moving to Westchester can enjoy a more spacious home with a beautiful backyard, all within just 30 minutes of the city. The Westchester area really provides the perfect balance of space and comfort, along with favorable tax advantages.
Do you expect this phenomenon to continue in the coming weeks, leading to the election? And what do you think could happen if Mamdani wins?
Yes, we’ve seen a steadily rising market since the summer and expect that to continue through election day. Our team is busy! There are many buyers circulating right now in anticipation of the election result who have not yet won a bidding war. If Mamdani wins, as the current polls are showing, we would expect the Westchester market to be even stronger through the end of the year and into 2026 with heightened demand. If one of the other candidates wins, we would expect the market to normalize.
Historically, the fall season is a quieter time for the suburban market, where we are starting to make new buyer connections, buyers are getting educated and ready, with plans to transact in the new year. This fall season has been defined by a new sense of urgency; buyers are moving quickly, and they’re ready to buy now.
