New Yorker Has Viral Theory About Short Nails: ‘Recession’

After years of long, dramatic manicures dominating social media, a new trend is poised to take over: short, neatly kept nails.

Bryce Gruber, a veteran commerce director for major North American publishers shared her behind-the-scenes insight from the beauty industry on TikTok in a video that has gained viral attention.

“Do you know what’s going to be trending by the end of the year?” Gruber said in the video that has already racked up over 6 million views since being shared in May. “And I know it for a fact because the ad budgets were already spent and I sat in on a meeting about it last week.”

Gruber, 41, from New York, has worked as a commerce editor and director for roughly 20 years, specializing in consumer trends. She revealed that short nails are set to be on-trend this year. “Money is tight for a lot of people right now—people are opting for lower maintenance looks. This, being coupled with the popular ‘clean girl’ aesthetic has made the short and tidy nails trend a clear, emerging winner for the second half of 2025,” she told Newsweek.

Her TikTok explanation went further, revealing an insight she heard from an earlier advertising meeting with a publisher: “Just to give you a heads up, this publisher is one of the biggest in North America and controls a lot of the information that is distributed. I would say women between 25 and 45. If you are between those ages, you definitely read some of these sites, watch some of these TikTok accounts,” she said.

“The number one thing that I can see—and let me know if you agree, if you’re already seeing it—short nails,” she continued. “That like big coffin look that everyone was obsessed with, the like long French manicures that were having a moment like a few months ago. That stuff is done.”

Gruber noted the scale of commitment from brands behind the shift: “Every major nail and beauty company, I mean the L’Oréals, the Revlons, all of them, they have already committed massive amounts of ad spend to this sort of short but nicely kept nail trend. You’re going to see it everywhere, and honestly, I’m happy about it because it’s easier and I can tell you if I can wash my dishes, I can do all the things with reasonable nails.”

Industry publications back up her observations. Harper’s Bazaar UK recently named “dark, short nails” a standout for 2025, while ELLE Australia earlier reported a “dramatic shift” away from long acrylics toward short, square, or “squoval” shapes.

Meanwhile, social media commenters are interpreting the shift as a sign of the times. “Short nails aka the rise of conservatism and recession indicator,” wrote one TikTok user. Another dubbed it: “I can’t afford to get my nails done trend.” Others praised the practicality: “Short nails are easy to maintain and easy to work with.”

Are short nails an indicator of recession?

While this idea of “recession nails” is more of a viral meme than a formal economic measure, it reflects a broader move toward cost-saving beauty habits—similar to trends like “recession brunette” and “recession blonde” which have appeared online.

Historically, beauty choices have sometimes mirrored economic conditions, as seen in the “lipstick index”—a concept introduced by Estée Lauder’s former chairman to explain why sales of small luxury items like lipstick rise during downturns.

Currently, fears of a recession are growing again: According to a study by financial data firm FactSet, of the 451 earnings calls conducted by S&P 500 firms between March 15 and May 15, 121 of these mentioned “recession,” equivalent to 27 per cent.

These concerns are partly tied to President Donald Trump’s trade policies in his second term, with businesses warning of possible lasting damage despite recent tariff rollbacks and temporary pauses.