NFL fans are in for another excellent slate in Week 11.
Sunday’s games include two late-afternoon meetings between playoff contenders (and division rivals), followed by a must-see Sunday Night Football showdown between two of the betting favorites to win the NFC.
No need for any more preamble this week — let’s get right into it.
Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 80-70
All odds below via DraftKings; all kickoff times ET
Jets at Patriots (-12.5) — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)
Pick: Patriots -12.5
The Patriots (8-2) are not only on a seven-game winning streak, but they’re coming off their most impressive win of the season.
New England was able to beat Tampa Bay on the road despite some offensive struggles, as it converted just 5-of-14 third down attempts. The Pats made up for those struggles by ripping off four explosives of at least 50 yards, and they limited Baker Mayfield to just 273 yards passing on 43 attempts.
The Jets (2-7) were able to beat the Browns last Sunday thanks to two TDs on special teams, but I don’t trust this offense — which was just held to 54 passing yards — to keep this game close, especially with WR Garrett Wilson out.
Commanders at* Dolphins (-2.5) — Sun., 9:30 a.m. (NFL Network)
Pick: Dolphins -2.5
The wheels appear to have come off for Washington, which is now 3-7 after a 3-2 start.
In a matchup of two teams that I would mostly recommend fading at this point in the year, I like the Dolphins (3-7) to win a close one.
Miami’s dangerous when it’s able to run the ball effectively. It should have little difficulty moving the football on a Commanders D that has given up 380-plus yards six times this year, including in each of its last five games.
*This week’s international game takes place at the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain.
Buccaneers at Bills (-5.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Buccaneers +5.5
This line is giving too much respect to the Bills (6-3), who have struggled against worse defenses than Tampa Bay’s (6-3) this year. When Buffalo’s ground game is rolling, this remains a tough offense to stop, but I think DT Vita Vea and Co. will make Josh Allen and his underwhelming wide receiving core beat them.
I don’t expect the Bucs to pull off the upset in this one, but I think this spread is selling them short.
Texans (-6.5) at Titans — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Texans -6.5
The Titans (1-8) have the second-worst offense in the league by yards per play, which makes it hard to see them moving the ball on Houston’s outstanding defense. And don’t look now, but the Texans (4-5) have won four of their last six after an 0-3 start. They’ve been much more effective offensively in recent weeks, albeit against weak competition.
I expect this game to be closer than Houston’s 26-0 blowout win over Tennessee back in Week 4, but I do like the favorites to win by at least a touchdown. I don’t love the idea of taking a Davis Mills-led offense to cover 6.5 points (CJ Stroud missed Wednesday’s practice, which makes it unlikely he’ll be active), but I trust Houston’s D and running game to get the job done.
Packers (-7) at Giants — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Giants +7
I’m not sure I’d trust the Packers (5-3-1) to cover as 7-point favorites against anyone right now, and the Giants (2-8) strike me as a team that is A) better than its record and B) potentially dangerous in Jameis Winston’s Giants debut in the Meadowlands.
Green Bay should be able to bounce back after two ugly losses at home, but I don’t expect this team to cruise. Against the Eagles on Monday night, the Packers’ first game of the year without Tucker Kraft did little to dispel concerns about how this offense will fare down the stretch without No. 85.
Bengals at Steelers (-5.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Bengals +5.5
I don’t feel great backing the Bengals (3-6) given how bad they’ve been defensively, but I don’t trust Pittsburgh (5-4) to score enough to cover after what we saw from the Steelers in their loss to the Chargers on Sunday Night Football.
At 1-3 over their last four games, Pittsburgh doesn’t strike me as a safe bet to win any games going away, especially not against a Cincinnati offense that has been lights-out with Joe Flacco under center (including in a 470-yard explosion in Week 7 vs. none other than the Steelers).
Chargers (-3) at Jaguars — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Chargers -3
The Jaguars (5-4), like the Steelers, are a hard team to trust despite a hot start to the season. Jacksonville’s meltdown last week the Texans — the Jags were outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter of a 36-29 loss — makes the Chargers (7-3) hard to resist.
After a rough 1-3 stretch from Weeks 4-7, L.A. has outscored the Vikings, Titans and Steelers 89-40 over the last three weeks. I’m concerned about the Chargers’ O-line, but I don’t think Jacksonville will be able to exploit that issue effectively enough to pull off the upset here.
Panthers at Falcons (-3.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Panthers +3.5
Carolina (5-5) looked hapless offensively against the Saints last Sunday in a disappointing loss to the Saints, who dared Bryce Young to beat them downfield. Young averaged just 5.0 yards per attempt as Carolina lost 17-7. Can Young, whose 5.6 YPA on the season is second-worst in the NFL — just ahead of Browns rookie Dillon Gabriel and just behind Titans rookie Cam Ward — make defenses pay for overcommitting to stopping Rico Dowdle?
If I haven’t given this away, I’m not convinced the answer is yes. But this week, against a Falcons (3-6) team that is on a four-game losing streak that includes close losses to the Patriots and Colts the last two weeks, I think Carolina’s defense and running game will keep it close.
As much as Young has left to be desired in the downfield passing game, Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr.’s recent accuracy issues — he’s completed just 55-of-103 passes (53.3 percent) — make it hard to trust Atlanta to cover at -3.5.
Bears at Vikings (-3) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Bears +3
Despite winning six of their last seven games, the Bears (6-3) travel to Minnesota as 3-point underdogs vs. the Vikings (4-5).
Minnesota QB JJ McCarthy’s roller-coaster season has included some impressive highs, including a memorable fourth-quarter performance in a 27-24 road win over the Bears in Week 1, but I don’t trust him and the Vikings offense to score enough to cover this week. McCarthy’s six interceptions in four starts include three in the last two weeks, and he’s completed just over 50 of his passes since returning from injury in Week 9.
So, give me the Bears, who are top-10 in points per game (26.6), top-five in yards per play (5.9) and tied with the Lions for the fourth-fewest turnovers (6), to at least cover.
Seahawks at Rams (-3) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Seahawks +3
The SNF matchup between Detroit and Philly is understandably getting some love as a potential NFC Championship Game preview. To me, though, the two best teams in the NFC right now are the Seahawks (7-2) and the Rams (7-2).
That’s not really a hot take, either, as both these teams are on four-game winning streaks. Seattle has outscored its last four opponents 129-67. L.A. has been even more dominant, blowing out the Ravens, Jaguars, Saints and 49ers by a combined score of 128-26.
Given how high I am on both of these teams, I’d probably talk myself into whichever one was catching points. We’ll have plenty more to say on this game later this week, but right now, I can’t resist Seattle at +3 (though I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised by a push if the line stays put for the rest of the week).
49ers (-3) at Cardinals — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Pick: Cardinals +3
San Francisco’s (6-4) defense held up in its Week 7 win over the Falcons without star linebacker Fred Warner, but the absences of both Warner and Nick Bosa have looked like too much for this unit to overcome over the last three weeks.
The Cardinals are better than their 3-6 record, and they’ve moved the ball consistently with Jacoby Brissett at the helm the last four weeks. As long as Arizona can take care of the football, it should be able to cover, if not pull off an upset of a Niners squad that has gone just 3-4 since its 3-0 start.
Ravens (-7.5) at Browns — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Ravens -7.5
I’m not sure what to expect from Baltimore (4-5) the next time it meets a playoff contender, but the Ravens have outscored the Bears, Dolphins and Vikings 85-41 over the last three weeks. I expect them to stay hot on Sunday in Cleveland.
The Browns (2-7) just don’t have the offensive firepower to hang with good teams like Baltimore unless they give up 14 points or fewer. As good as the Cleveland defense is, that’s not a realistic ask against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Chiefs (-3.5) at Broncos — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (CBS)
Pick: Chiefs -3.5
The Broncos (8-2) are undeniably one of the best defensive teams in the league, but I don’t see the Denver offense scoring enough to take down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (5-4).
In a game they cannot afford to lose, expect a strong performance from the Chiefs, who are coming off of a well-timed bye after their 28-21 loss to the Bills in Week 9.
Lions at Eagles (-2.5) — Sun., 8:15 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Pick: Lions +2.5
The Eagles (7-2) are on a three-game winning streak. Still, I don’t feel great about the Philly offense after its 10-7 win over Green Bay. Somehow, the Eagles’ average yards per carry (4.0) through nine games being down nearly a full yard from last year (4.9 ypc) doesn’t quite do justice to how much less effective this rushing attack has been.
The Lions (6-3) have had some ugly losses against tough competition this year, including 14-point defeats to the Packers in Week 1 and the Chiefs in Week 6. But to me, their wins over the Ravens and the Bucs proved that they remain one of the top teams in the league.
At minimum, I like the Lions’ balanced offense to put up solid numbers in this game, and I also trust the Detroit D to slow down a Philly offense coming off of its worst performance of the season.
Cowboys (-3.5) at Raiders — Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
Pick: Cowboys -3.5
The Cowboys (3-5-1) had two of their worst games of the season before their Week 10 bye, but I expect them to get back on track vs. the Raiders (2-7).
Dallas’s biggest problem is its banged-up defense, but that unit should get a boost from trade acquisitions Logan Wilson at linebacker and Quinnen Williams at DT. The Cowboys also expect to have talented third-year linebacker DeMarvion Overshown making his season debut.
Those players could should help the defense keep the struggling Las Vegas offense in check. The loss of guard Jackson Powers-Johnson means the Raiders will be without at least two starting O-linemen, and potentially three (tackle Kolton Miller remains on IR, and guard Dylan Parham is questionable).
Vegas has quietly been solid defensively, but I trust Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ talented offense to score just enough to cover as 3.5-point favorites.
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