Last week, taking favorites to cover more than 6 points backfired for anyone who slept on underdogs New Orleans, Las Vegas and Tampa Bay, to name a few. Still, we like Tampa at home against a Denver offense that is struggling to move the ball with rookie Bo Nix at quarterback.
Modi: Buccaneers -7
Bucs head coach Todd Bowles is known for his creative, aggressive blitz schemes, and we have seen nothing from Broncos QB Bo Nix to suggest that he is ready for that.
Giants at Browns (-6) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Browns -6
Cleveland has its issues, especially at quarterback, but the Browns defense is good enough for a win — and a cover at home — against Daniel Jones and the Giants.
Modi: Browns -6
While I do not feel great about backing Deshaun Watson, he did look better in Week 2 than he did in Week 1, and the Giants will not find nearly as much success on offense as they did against the Commanders.
Chargers at Steelers (-1.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Chargers +1.5
Jim Harbaugh has already made L.A. a team that, if nothing else, is not going to beat itself. The Chargers will hang with Pittsburgh from start to finish, it not pull off the upset, as long as their offensive line can hold up against a Pittsburgh front seven that has been dominant to start the year.
Modi: Chargers +1.5
The Steelers are 2-0 but have scored one offensive touchdown through two games. Both teams have had an easy schedule, but the Chargers have won both their games by double-digits, while the Steelers have played two close, one-score games.
Eagles at Saints (-2.5) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Eagles +2.5
Philadelphia had its Week 2 matchup against Atlanta all but won, but collapsed in the final two minutes. New Orleans has looked like a machine, and we can’t pin all their success on the opposition being weak after the Saints beat Dallas 44-19 in Arlington last Sunday. We like Philly to cover, though, even against the most dominant team in the league through two weeks.
Modi: Eagles +2.5
The Saints look like the best team in NFL history, but it is hard to believe they will continue to keep scoring on 100 percent of their possessions, which they are currently on pace for. This represents a good buy-low opportunity on the Eagles after a gross loss on MNF.
Texans (-2.5) at Vikings — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Vikings +2.5
Minnesota is off to an incredible start, including a 27-19 win over San Francisco last Sunday. Sam Darnold is cooking under Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell, and the Texans struggled (albeit in victories) against both Chicago and Indianapolis. Let’s go with Minnesota to win as a home dog for the second time in as many weeks.
Modi: Vikings +2.5
The battle of two teams that are 2-0 in what should be a fun game. Not impressed with the Texans, while I am starting to believe in the Darnold reclamation project in Minnesota. Give me the Vikings to win this one straight up as well.
Packers at Titans (-3) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Packers +3
Green Bay was incredibly impressive given the circumstances in Week 2, dominating the line of scrimmage to get a comfortable win with Malik Willis leading the offense in place of the injured Jordan Love. The Packers defense harassed Anthony Richardson into three interceptions, and it should be able to take the football away from Will Levis and the Titans.
Modi: Titans -3
It never feels fun to bet on Will Levis, but the Packers’ game plan with Malik Willis at QB should not be a surprise for Tennessee after seeing film on it from last week.
Bears at Colts (-1) — Sunday, 1 p.m.
Everett: Bears +1
Neither Chicago nor Indianapolis have looked good offensively to start the season. For this game, we’ll go with the Bears defense making the difference against second-year Colts QB Anthony Richardson. He has had some highlight-reel throws, but has also completed just 49 percent of his passes this year, with four interceptions and two fumbles.
Modi: Colts -1
This is one of the hardest games on the board to get a handle on. Anthony Richardson looked legitimately bad last week, but inconsistency is to be expected, and at least he has shown a ceiling that we have not yet seen in Caleb Williams’ young career.
Panthers at Raiders (-5.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Raiders -5.5
The Raiders could be ripe for a letdown after an upset win in Baltimore, which makes this a tough game to predict. Carolina also feels like a wild card after switching from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton. The safest play is probably Carolina plus the points, but let’s lay them with the Raiders, who should be able to pull away against a Panthers defense that has been historically bad through two weeks.
Modi: Panthers +5.5
Do I feel great about backing the Panthers two weeks in a row? Of course not, but they should get better QB play now that they have benched Bryce Young.
Dolphins at Seahawks (-4.5) — Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Everett: Dolphins +4.5
Miami got embarrassed in Week 2 against Buffalo. It’s understandably a clear underdog in Week 3, whether it starts the recently signed Tyler Huntley or backup Skylar Thompson. If it’s Huntley who gets the start on Sunday, Miami should be able to keep this just close enough to cover as 4.5-point dogs.
Modi: Seahawks -4.5
Geno Smith has looked phenomenal through two games as Seattle sits here with a 2-0 record, and the Dolphins offense figures to struggle with Tua Tagovailoa out for the foreseeable future.
49ers (-7) at Rams — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Rams -7
The Rams might be able to keep this one close for a while, but the Niners will eventually pull away and cover the 7-point spread. In addition to the well-documented injuries at WR and OL that L.A. is dealing with, its inexperienced front seven also has a bad matchup against the Niners’ running game, which is hard to stop even with Christian McCaffrey sidelined.
Modi: 49ers -7
This is probably my favorite play backing a team that’s favored, as the Rams are missing their top two receivers and three of their five starting OL. They are going to get shellacked.
Lions (-2.5) at Cardinals — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Lions -2.5
The Cardinals can score with anybody in the league, and their offense will continue to get better as Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. continue to develop chemistry. The Lions came up just short at home against Tampa Bay last week, I expect them to bounce back with a win and a cover on Sunday, but barely.
Modi: Lions -2.5
The Cardinals were able to make mincemeat of a Rams team that has had the worst injury luck in recent memory, but that won’t be the case against a Lions team that should be able to bounce back after a tough loss last week.
Ravens (-1.5) at Cowboys — Sunday, 4:25 p.m.
Everett: Ravens -1.5
Baltimore has problems on both sides of the ball. But against a Cowboys team that is not nearly as dangerous when it’s playing from behind, I like the Ravens to lean on Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson’s legs to build an early lead and hang on for a crucial road win.
Modi: Ravens -1.5
This is another game that feels impossible to make a prediction on, but the Cowboys run defense looks to be a real concern, and the Ravens are the last team you want to face with a leaky run defense.
Chiefs (-3.5) at Falcons — Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Everett: Chiefs -3.5
Kansas City hardly looked untouchable in its Week 2 win over Cincinnati at home, but the Chiefs still have the edge in just about every matchup in this game. Kirk Cousins and the Falcons are much better than the team we saw in Week 1, but they don’t have quite enough to knock off the reigning champs.
Modi: Chiefs -3.5
The Falcons got the impressive victory over the Eagles on Monday night, but the Chiefs defense should have a much better defensive game plan than the Eagles, who did not force a single three-and-out that entire game.
Jaguars at Bills (-5) — Monday, 7:30 p.m.
Everett: Bills -5
Through two weeks, the Jaguars have the makings of a team with just enough talent to lose close, but just enough weaknesses to rarely cover as favorites. The Bills continue to deal with injuries on defense, but I like Allen and Buffalo’s ground game to control this game as the Bills win by a touchdown.
Modi: Jaguars +5
The Jags have looked like one of the worst teams in the NFL (outside of Carolina, of course), but weird things always happen when these two play each other, and the guess here is that Jacksonville is able to keep this one closer than it should.
Commanders at Bengals (-7.5) — Monday, 8:15 p.m.
Everett: Bengals -7.5
The Commanders lost their opener by 17 to Tampa Bay and gutted out one of the most improbable wins of the year over the Giants last Sunday. This team is not good enough defensively to keep the Bengals in check, especially if Cincinnati has Tee Higgins on the field opposite Ja’Marr Chase.
Modi: Bengals -7.5
The Commanders did not score a single offensive touchdown last week, but still somehow managed to get the win. Their offense looks brutal, as rookie QB Jayden Daniels is not really capable of doing anything through the air, while the Commanders might also have the worst defense in the NFL. Look for Ja’Marr Chase to blow up in this one as well.
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