NFL Week 3 Early Picks Against The Spread For All 16 Games

Every Tuesday this season, Newsweek Sports Betting Editor Tyler Everett will offer his early ATS picks for every NFL game.

Unfortunately, the biggest storyline in the NFL right now is how a growing number of teams might look with backup quarterbacks under center.

The biggest injury news is that Bengals QB Joe Burrow will undergo toe surgery that will likely end his season. He’s not only the big-name quarterback set to miss time, though.

San Francisco’s Brock Purdy missed Week 2 and is expected to miss another game or two, and reigning NFL OROY Jayden Daniels’ status for Week 3 is uncertain. The Jets’ Justin Fields is also a question mark for this weekend.

While the mounting QB injury news is impossible to ignore, there are a few great matchups to highlight this weekend, including Rams vs. Eagles, Cardinals vs. 49ers and a Monday Night Football doozy between the Lions and Ravens.

Early NFL ATS Picks YTD Record: 16-16

After a 7-9 showing in Week 1, our Week 2 early ATS picks went 9-7.

Not to brag, but through 32 games this year, I’ve been every bit as accurate as a coin flip.

All odds via DraftKings; all kickoff times EDT

Dolphins at Bills — Thurs., 8:15 p.m. (Prime Video)

Pick: Bills -12.5

There’s no such thing as a sure thing when it comes to ATS bets. Case in point: Buffalo 30, Miami 27 in Week 9 last season, just seven weeks after the Bills blew out the Fins 31-10.

That doesn’t mean we should overthink this battle between what might be the best team in the league right now and the worst one.

Packers at Browns — 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Packers -8.5

The Browns defense is playing at a high level, but it doesn’t matter because of how much this team is struggling offensively.

Myles Garrett and the Browns D are going to make a lot of games interesting this season. This week, however, I expect the Packers to roll, as Micah Parsons and Co. will overwhelm Joe Flacco even more than they did Jared Goff in Week 1 and Jayden Daniels in Week 2.

Falcons (-5.5) at Panthers — 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Panthers +5.5

How long can “the crippling mistakes this team is making are correctable” be considered an “encouraging” sentiment? In Week 2 vs. the Cardinals, the Panthers once again (nearly) buried themselves with first-half turnovers, but they came to life with a furious late rally on the road.

There are major red flags for Carolina right now, including longterm injuries to center Austin Corbett and Pro Bowl guard Robert Hunt. I’m probably (definitely?) overthinking this, but for some reason, I expect Bryce Young to find a way to limit the turnovers and hang with the Falcons.

Atlanta is coming off an outstanding defensive effort in Minnesota on Sunday Night Football. The last time these teams met, the Panthers’ D offered little resistance against the Falcons’ talented offense, but still won 44-38 in overtime thanks to the best performance of Young’s career.

Colts (-3.5) at Titans — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Colts -3.5

Indy’s offense officially has to be taken seriously after shredding the Broncos for 316 yards passing and 167 on the ground.

Cam Ward has shown some flashes for Tennessee, but I can’t see the Titans outscoring the red-hot Colts.

Bengals at Vikings (-3) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Bengals +3

The long-term loss of Joe Burrow is (obviously) an excruciating blow for Cincinnati.

That being said, Jake Browning played well the last time the Bengals had to turn to him. Cincinnati won’t be the only team relying on a backup QB in this game: the Vikings are turning to Carson Wentz as J.J. McCarthy deals with an ankle injury.

This matchup feels like a coin flip to me, especially if Minnesota left tackle Christian Darrisaw, backup LT Justin Skule, starting center Ryan Kelly and/or RB Aaron Jones are sidelined (all four either missed the loss to the Falcons or left early due to injuries).

With that in mind, give me Browning and the Bengals to cover as road dogs.

Rams at Eagles (-3.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Rams +3.5

Am I really going with a Rams team that allowed Saquon Barkley to run for nearly 500 yards in two meetings between these teams last season?

For better or worse, yes. There’s no denying that this feels dicey after Barkley picked up 457 yards on 52 carries (8.8 ypc) and four touchdowns in two games vs. the Rams last year.

But we should keep in mind that despite Barkley’s heroics in last year’s Divisional Round battle, the Rams nearly won that game. They’ve also looked impressive through two weeks, outscoring the Texans and Titans 47-28 for a 2-0 start.

I also expect another close game for the Eagles for a couple of reasons:

• A) Philly is coming off two tight, potentially draining wins to open the season
• B) The Eagles’ passing game under first-year OC Kevin Patullo is leaving a lot to be desired

Raiders at Commanders (-3.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Commanders -3.5

If Jayden Daniels were healthy and guaranteed to be in action, the Commanders would likely be much more substantial favorites. My guess is it will be Washington backup Marcus Mariota starting against his old team, but we won’t get clarity on that until later this week.

Regardless, after watching the Raiders’ struggles (particularly QB Geno Smith’s) vs. the Chargers on Monday Night Football, I’ll take the Commanders to narrowly win and cover at home, even if Daniels is on the bench.

While both these teams are coming off ugly Week 2 losses, Washington is at home and has had 10 days’ rest since their last game, while the Raiders are flying across the country for an early kickoff on a quick turnaround.

Steelers (-1.5) at Patriots — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Steelers -1.5

Pittsburgh appears to have taken a major step back on D after struggling to get stops vs. both the Jets in Week 1 and the Seahawks in Week 2, which makes this game a bit of a toss-up.

While the Patriots are 1-1, they haven’t looked like a threat in the AFC. So, let’s go with Aaron Rodgers to make one more play than Drake Maye, giving the Steelers their second close win over an AFC East foe in three weeks.

Jets at Buccaneers (-7) — Sun., 1 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Buccaneers -7

The Bucs are laying a lot of points in this one after squeaking by the Falcons and Texans to open the season. Still, I like Tampa to roll against a Jets team that could be without starting QB Justin Fields (concussion).

The Bucs were good enough for a comeback win in Week 2 against a loaded Houston defense on MNF. They got the job done with stud LT Tristan Wirfs on the sideline and starting RT Luke Goedeke missing most of the contest. Wirfs practiced last week, and his possible return would be huge, while it’s unclear whether Goedeke will be back this weekend.

My faith in Tampa covering will be shaken if Wirfs and/or Goedeke miss this game, but assuming one or both return, I expect the Bucs to win comfortably.

Texans at Jaguars (-1.5) — Sun., 1 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Jaguars -0.5

Here’s a game I strongly recommend staying away from. The Jaguars are just a couple of plays away from being 2-0 right now. While the Texans seemingly have too much going for them to fall to 0-3, wins will be hard to come by until there is substantial improvement by the O-line.

Another major concern for Houston is that it is facing a Jaguars team that has had a ton of early success running the ball (169.5 rushing yards per game). The Texans just allowed Bucky Irving and Rachaad White to gash them for 169 yards behind a Bucs O-line missing both of its starting tackles.

I don’t love the idea of taking Trevor Lawrence over a desperate C.J. Stroud, but right now, that’s where I’m leaning.

Broncos at Chargers (-2.5) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Chargers -2.5

At some point, the Chargers are going to need to run the ball much more effectively than they have to start this season.

I expect another big game from Justin Herbert this weekend, though, plus a strong defensive showing in the Chargers’ home opener vs. Broncos QB Bo Nix (who is averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt and has already thrown three interceptions).

With that in mind, give me L.A. — which swept the Broncos a year ago — to improve to 3-0 and cover.

Saints at Seahawks (-7.5) — Sun., 4:05 p.m. (CBS)

Pick: Seahawks -7.5

Word is starting to get out about this Seattle defense, which shut down both San Francisco in Week 1 (albeit in a losing effort) and Pittsburgh in Week 2.

Still, Mike Macdonald’s unit remains a bit underrated, IMO. I expect the Seattle D to bring Spencer Rattler crashing back to Earth after the best performance of the second-year QB’s career in a close Week 2 loss at home to San Francisco.

Cowboys at Bears (-1.5) — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: Cowboys +1.5

There are some major flaws on both of these rosters right now, but I’ll happily take Dak Prescott and the Cowboys at +1.5 in a shootout vs. Caleb Williams and the Bears.

Cardinals at 49ers (-1.5) — Sun., 4:25 p.m. (FOX)

Pick: 49ers -1.5

It was just one game vs. a weak opponent, but in his first start under head coach Kyle Shanahan, Mac Jones looked capable of keeping the 49ers offense on track for however long Brock Purdy is sidelined.

Against easily the best defense they’ve faced this year (with all due respect to the Saints and Panthers, of course), I expect the Cardinals to struggle on the road in this matchup.

Another reason to like the Niners is the revenge factor after their listless 47-24 loss to Arizona in Week 18 last January. That result completed a season sweep for the Cards. This Sunday, with Jones (or maybe Purdy, if he recovers from his turf toe injury sooner than expected) and Christian McCaffrey in the SF backfield instead of QB Joshua Dobbs and RB Patrick Taylor, I expect a very different outcome.

Chiefs (-6.5) at Giants — Sun., 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Pick: Chiefs -6.5

This is the definition of a “get-right game” for a Chiefs team coming off excruciating losses to the Chargers and Eagles.

The Giants’ pass rush should get a boost from the home crowd and prevent this from being easy for Patrick Mahomes and Co. That being said, it would be a shock to see the Chiefs fall to 0-3 against Russell Wilson and the Giants.

The potential return of speedy WR Xavier Worthy could work wonders for the sputtering KC offense, but even if he is unable to go, I like Mahomes and the Chiefs to get untracked, one way or another.

Lions at Ravens (-4.5) — Mon., 8:15 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)

Pick: Ravens -4.5

We should see plenty of points in this clash between two teams that appear poised to once again average well over 30 points per game in 2025.

The Lions’ Week 1 loss to the Packers set off some red flags, but they bounced back emphatically by shredding the Bears 52-21 last Sunday.

For the Ravens, the biggest question is whether their defense can finish games.

I like Lamar Jackson to outduel Jared Goff to improve to 2-1. But despite the final score of the last regular-season matchup between these teams (Baltimore 38, Detroit 6 on October 22, 2023), I don’t quite trust the Ravens to cover at -4.5 against the explosive Detroit offense.

In case anyone needs a reminder, Baltimore gave up 38 and 34 points in close, high-scoring wins over Cincinnati a year ago. The Ravens also opened this season by blowing a 40-25 fourth-quarter lead over the Bills in a 1-point loss.

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