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- College football weekend preview (every Thursday evening)
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Below is this morning’s edition, which is available below, to subscribers only.
Welcome back to another glorious day to be an NFL fan. The Jets and Broncos are duking it out on NFL Network as we speak, btw, for those of you who are into that sort of thing.
This afternoon’s slate is admittedly light on heavyweight matchups, but we’ve got three outstanding primetime games to look forward to tonight and tomorrow: Lions-Chiefs on SNF this evening, plus Bills-Falcons and Bears-Commanders on MNF.
Before checking out my favorite plays for today, see below for my early takes on every game taking place this weekend:
NFL Week 6 Early Picks Against The Spread: Best ATS Bets For All 15 Games
Cardinals at Colts (-9.5) — 1 p.m. (FOX)
If the last two weeks in the NFL taught us anything, it was that there are no sure things this season — not even the Bills in Buffalo or the Eagles in Philly.
But although they’re not undefeated, the 4-1 Colts’ case as the safest bet you can make every weekend, particularly against bad teams, is getting stronger all the time.
Indy squeaked by the Broncos in Week 2 and lost a close game to the Rams in Week 4, but Daniel Jones and Co. buried the Dolphins in Week 1 (IND 33, MIA 8), the Titans in Week 3 (IND 41, TEN 20) and the Raiders (IND 40, LV 6) in Week 5.
The 2-3 Cardinals are a tougher out than those three (or at least I think they are). But without Kyler Murray, who is doubtful today, I don’t see Jacoby Brissett keeping this game close for 60 minutes against his former team.
Before the Murray news emerged, I thought Arizona’s underrated run D might slow down Jonathan Taylor and help the Cards cover at +7, but I’m now ready to put my faith in the Colts once again covering a big number against a heavy underdog.
Pick: Colts -9.5 (best odds: -112 at DraftKings)
Rams (-7) at Ravens — 1 p.m. (FOX)
At some point, the 1-4 Ravens are going to get right — or at least get back to respectability — right?
Personally, I don’t see that happening until after their Week 7 bye, though — and I’m pretty sure it’s going to take more than a week off to resolve all of this team’s problems, but I digress …
On Sunday, Baltimore — which has allowed a whopping 177 points (just over 35 per game) through five weeks — faces a Rams offense that is rolling.
L.A. (3-2) is coming off an upset loss at home vs. shorthanded NFC West rival San Francisco, but the good news is that they meet Baltimore on 10 days’ rest.
Rams QB Matthew Stafford shredded the Colts and the Niners the last two weeks, with over 350 yards passing and three touchdowns in each of those contests.
Given the Ravens’ inability to stop the previously struggling Chiefs in Week 4 and the (also previously struggling) Texans in Week 5, the obvious play for this game is Rams -7.
Remember, Baltimore is not only missing several key defensive players in this contest, including D-lineman Nnamdi Madubuike and linebacker Roquan Smith, but also two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, and backup Cooper Rush threw three interceptions despite attempting just 20 passes last Sunday vs. Houston.
Pick: Rams -7 (best odds: -115 at FanDuel, bet365)
Titans vs. Raiders (-4.5) — 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Am I the only one who can’t resist any team catching more than 3 points against Geno Smith and the 1-4 Raiders right now?
Smith and coach Pete Carroll were widely expected to bring immediate improvements to a team that went 4-13 due in large part to poor QB play from Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell. I must admit that I was as bullish as anyone on Smith making a big impact on this team.
But through five games, he is getting picked off and sacked left and right. He’s thrown a league-high nine interceptions, ahead of everyone including the recently benched Jake Browning. Smith has also been sacked 16 times, which is more than all but three players.
In addition, Smith’s passer rating (75.6) is the lowest it’s been since his rookie season back in 2013.
I should add here that Smith is far from the Raiders’ only problem. His numbers do, however, effectively sum up why I recommend fading Las Vegas today.
To be fair, there’s also plenty to dislike about the 1-4 Titans as well, but their furious — and yes, lucky — rally for Cam Ward’s first NFL win should bring a huge confidence boost.
More importantly, Ward’s sack rate is trending in the right direction after he went down six times in Week 1. In fact, his sack rate has decreased every week since the season opener vs. the Broncos, all the way down to a very manageable 4.88% percent last week.
He also averaged a solid 6.8 yards per attempt in Week 5, easily his season-high, and appeared to finally be on the same page with WR Calvin Ridley (5 catches, 131 yards).
I don’t see the Titans getting many more road wins this year, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they pulled off another upset in this contest, and I love them at +4.5.
Pick: Titans +4.5 (best odds: -115 at DraftKings, FanDuel)
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