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This morning’s edition is available below, to subscribers only.
Good morning!
The last NFL London game of the year is underway. Not to worry, though — there are a few more 9:30 a.m. ET kickoffs later this season for games in Germany and Spain.
Like Week 6 before it, Week 7 in the NFL features three excellent primetime matchups with playoff implications: Falcons-49ers, Buccaneers-Lions and Texans-Seahawks.
Before checking out my favorite plays for today, see below for my early takes on all 15 games taking place this weekend:
And don’t miss the latest episode of Newsweek’s sports betting video podcast, All In With Ashley, while you finish placing your bets for today:
Panthers (-1) at Jets — 1 p.m. (FOX)
Something has to give.
The Panthers, who are undefeated at home this year, have not been the same away from Bank of America Stadium, to put it nicely. Is this the road game where Carolina finally avoids falling into an early hole?
The Jets, on the other hand, are 0-6, but four of their six losses were by a touchdown or less. As the last winless team in the league, the pressure is mounting on Aaron Glenn to get his first W as head coach.
To me, going with the road favorites is the move, though it’s certainly risky against a desperate team like the Jets. Carolina’s suddenly dominant running game is poised for another big performance against the Jets, who have missed the second-most tackles in the league, per Pro Football Reference.
It’s also hard to see New York moving the ball effectively if top WR Garrett Wilson, who is doubtful with a knee injury, is unavailable. Running the ball could be tricky today, too. That’s because one year after fielding a historically bad (not an exaggeration) run D, Carolina has been a brick wall up front the last two weeks.
Backing a squad that has already laid three eggs on the road this year is risky, but let’s assume the Panthers finally play up to their potential on the road and go with the team that has the upper hand on paper right now.
Pick: Panthers -1 (best odds: -110 at bet365)
Saints at Bears (-4.5) — 1 p.m. (FOX)
Typically, I would not be interested in taking a 1-5 team to cover on the road vs. a 3-2 team. But the Saints have been in close games almost every week, and second-year QB Spencer Rattler quietly put together two of the best games of his career over the last month.
Against a banged up Bears D that is still without top CB Jaylon Johnson and will also be missing starting linebacker Noah Sewell, I think the Saints will be able to move the ball (as long as Rattler — who has not thrown a pick since Week 3 — can continue that streak).
The ceiling of the Chicago offense is hard to deny, but Caleb Williams and Co. are not yet consistent enough for me to bank on them to pull away from anybody.
After a couple of road underdogs covered in Week 6 (including none other than the Bears), give me New Orleans to be one of the first dogs to cover today.
Pick: Saints +4.5 (best odds: -118 at DraftKings, FanDuel)
Dolphins vs. Browns (-2.5) — 1 p.m. (CBS)
Staying in the “sickos only” zone, let’s talk about Miami vs. Cleveland. The total (34.5 or 35, depending on the book) is as low as you’ll see for a game in mid-October.
To me, this is a great case of a game where I’d lean toward the under, no matter the total. First of all, the dominant Cleveland DL is more than capable of containing the Dolphins offense, without any help from the weather. Today, in rainy, windy conditions (with gusts potentially up to 25 mph), Myles Garrett and Co. should have an even more pronounced advantage than usual.
But it takes two offenses that can’t be trusted to spend money on an under this low. Fortunately, the Browns certainly have fit the “untrustworthy” bill in their last few games. With rookie Dillon Gabriel under center the last two weeks, the Browns scored 26 points, total, against the Vikings and Steelers.
And Cleveland’s inability to score against Pittsburgh looks much worse in hindsight after what happened on Thursday Night Football, doesn’t it?
Remember, Cleveland has already played in three games that finished with a total lower than 35, and the opposing offenses in those contests — the Bengals, Packers and Steelers — are all better than the Dolphins.
Gross as it is, Under 35 just sounds right for this game.
Pick: Under 35 (best odds: -115 at bet365)
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