The odds of a prolonged federal government shutdown stretching into mid-November have jumped as negotiations to pass a funding bill continue stalling in the Senate, according to Polymarket betting odds.
Newsweek reached out to spokespersons for Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a South Dakota Republican, and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, for comment via email.
Why It Matters
The government shutdown began October 1 after legislators failed to reach consensus on a bill that would allocate funding to the federal government, and the stoppage could last several more weeks, as Democrats and Republicans continue to remain at odds over key issues to broker a deal.
There are many impacts of government shutdowns—hundreds of thousands of federal workers may be unpaid or furloughed, and there can be disruptions to passport processing applications, national parks and government benefits.
Republicans control both the House of Representatives and the Senate, but the Senate filibuster requires 60 votes to advance bills, so the continuing resolution has to gain more bipartisan support to pass. Democrats have pushed for concessions on health care funding, but Republicans have sought to pass a bill that already advanced through the House.
What To Know
The likelihood of the shutdown lasting another month has increased over the past few days, according to Polymarket, which showed a 38 percent chance of the shutdown lasting until November 16, as of 4:30 p.m. ET Friday.
That’s up from only about 10 percent a week ago.
Polymarket on Friday gave the shutdown a 17 percent chance of ending from October 31 to November 3, and a 15 percent chance from November 4 to November 7.
There is a 9 percent chance it ends from November 12 to November 15, according to Polymarket.
Polymarket traders have bet nearly $500,000 on the date that the federal government will reopen.
Kalshi showed similar results. It gave a 70 percent chance that the shutdown would last 35 days and become the longest in U.S. history, a 51 percent chance that it would last more than 40 days and a 39 percent chance it would stretch over 45 days.
The Senate again voted Thursday on the bill to end the shutdown, but there has been no movement in the more than two weeks since it began. Only two Democratic senators—Catherine Cortez-Masto of Nevada and John Fetterman of Pennsylvania—voted in favor of the bill.
Thune sent the Senate home after the vote, meaning the shutdown will last until at least Monday. The House of Representatives has not been in session since September 19.
The Republican leader told MSNBC on Thursday that he has told Democratic leaders he is willing to make a deal to hold a vote on Affordable Care Act subsidies that are poised to end if Congress does not act. This has been a sticking point for Democrats, but it has yet to be seen whether his offer is enough to convince others to change their vote.
What People Are Saying
Schumer, on X Wednesday: “If Republicans continue to ignore the healthcare crisis they’ve manufactured: People will go bankrupt People will get sick People will lose insurance People will fail to get the care they need and more people will needlessly die.”
Thune, on MSNBC Thursday: “There is a bill sitting at the desk right now that opens up the government, and you all know that. The president would sign it today. It’s simply a function of five Democrats joining the three Democrats who are already voting to open up the government. And I think that’s the quickest way to end this.”
Cortez-Masto, in a statement September 30: ““President Trump and Congressional Republicans are already hurting Nevadans who are dealing with high costs, an economic slowdown, and a looming health care crisis. This administration doesn’t care about Nevadans, but I do. That’s why I cannot support a costly shutdown that would hurt Nevada families and hand even more power to this reckless administration.”
What Happens Next
The Senate is set to reconvene Monday, and a deal to bring the shutdown to an end will be a top priority. The House has canceled votes and is unlikely to return until the shutdown is over.
