That lightning-quick innovation is possible for two reasons: First, Ukraine has a large and diverse domestic drone industry of over 200 companies — along with hundreds of smaller firms and volunteers — that turn out hundreds of thousands of small, cheap drones a month. Second, Ukraine’s military prizes agility over certainty in adopting and adapting new technologies, including faster approvals, rapid prototyping and testing and direct collaboration between engineers and soldiers on the front lines.
This war is both a lesson and a warning to the United States: Adapt now or be left behind.
In 2016, the Marine Corps commandant, Gen. Robert Neller, announced a “quads for squads” program, promising to equip every Marine squad with its own quadcopter drones by the “end of next year.” Eight years later, the Marines are still trying to make that happen. So, what’s the problem? The U.S. drone industry lags China’s, manufacturing only 5,000 to 6,000 small drones per month, compared to China’s more than one hundred thousand per month, according to some analysts, and they are no match for China’s in capability or cost.
To stay ahead, the new administration must place new bets. It needs to diversify risk. This means developing a wide array of systems, made by many companies in smaller numbers, rather than putting all its resources into a few big-ticket platforms from a few major players. When such systems prove their worth, they can be rapidly scaled up and upgraded. Systems failing to make the grade — and the companies behind them — get left behind.
The diffusion of technology means U.S. military superiority must come not just from the weapons it has, but from how it uses them. This calls for close collaboration among operators, engineers and industry figures. Innovation thrives when ideas are tested and refined in the field, not just in labs.
The Pentagon’s current approach is rooted in a mind-set that worked for 20th-century industrial-era wars, including the Cold War. The Trump administration’s task is to bring the military into the 21st century. The future of warfare and deterrence requires diversity, flexibility and speed. The sooner the United States adapts, the better prepared it will be for the conflicts to come.
