Potential Tropical Storm Barbara Chances at Forming More Than Double

Chances for a developing tropical system off the southern Pacific coast of Mexico to become Tropical Storm Barbara have more than doubled in recent days, according to updates from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

As the storm strengthens, it could sap energy from another system to its east, AccuWeather senior meteorologist John Feerick told Newsweek, or the two systems could combine themselves.

Why It Matters

The rapid increase in the likelihood of storm formation comes during the early weeks of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which runs from May 15 to November 30.

Forecasters suggested that storms forming in this basin can bring significant rainfall and thunderstorms not only to Mexico but also to the U.S. Southwest, potentially influencing the region’s summer monsoon. With the NHC monitoring multiple disturbances and AccuWeather predicting an active season, the prospect of Barbara highlights the importance of preparedness in hurricane-prone areas.

Potential tropical storm Barbara chances at forming — The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two potential systems in the Eastern Pacific.

National Hurricane Center

What To Know

As of Friday morning, experts at the NHC assigned an 80 percent probability that the disturbance will organize into a named storm within the next week, up from just 30 percent the day prior. If it forms, Barbara would become the second named system of the 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Alvin.

The system, identified as a broad area of low pressure, formed west of another system also being tracked for potential tropical development by the NHC. The western system’s development has outpaced the one closer to Mexico.

Continued development is likely, the NHC said, adding that a tropical depression will likely form over the weekend or early next week as the system moves west-northwestward.

As of the latest NHC update, the system closer to Mexico also has a high chance of development in the next week at 70 percent.

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began earlier than the Atlantic and Central Pacific seasons. The basin historically sees its first storm around June 10, but early formations are not unusual, as AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva told Newsweek.

AccuWeather projected 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes in the Eastern Pacific for 2025, while official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts called for 12 to 18 storms, with five to 10 becoming hurricanes and two to five reaching major hurricane status.

As of the June 6 NHC update, there are no named cyclones active in the basin, though continued monitoring is underway.

What People Are Saying

Although two tropical storms before June 10 is not unusual, Feerick told Newsweek: “It certainly would be climatologically pretty early to have three named storms by the middle of June.”

NHC in a forecast about the system closer to Mexico: “Showers and thunderstorms have increased a little on the eastern side of a broad trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward just off the coast of Mexico. Interests in southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.”