Putin Ally Warns Trump Escalation in Ukraine ‘Will Lead to a World War’

Andrey Melnichenko, a Russian oligarch sanctioned by the West following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has warned that “a world war” could follow if President Donald Trump makes a move that the Kremlin considers an escalation.

Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin and the White House via email for comment.

Why It Matters

President Donald Trump’s return to the White House has amplified speculation about negotiations to end the war started by Putin in February 2022.

On January 24, Putin told reporters that Moscow is ready for talks with Trump on ending the conflict. However, he added that any peace deal with Kyiv would be invalid because of a decree by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Moscow has said the Ukrainian president is an illegitimate leader stemming from the martial law he declared due to the war, which banned presidential, parliamentary and local elections. Before the decree, his five-year term was set to expire in May 2024.

On Tuesday, Zelensky said during an interview on Piers Morgan Uncensored that he’s ready to sit at the negotiating table with Putin. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov responded the following day by calling the comments “empty words.”

What To Know

The co-founder of fertilizer company EuroChem and coal producer SUEK, Melnichenko is worth an estimated $25 billion, according to Forbes. His views do not necessarily reflect Kremlin thinking but add to a climate of uncertainty about how Putin might react to a move by Trump to end the war quickly.

Weeks after Russia launched its full-scale invasion, Italian authorities seized Melnichenko’s superyacht worth $578 million in March 2022.

In facing sanctions, he was described by the European Union (EU) Council as “a member of the closest circle of Vladimir Putin” who backed policies which threatened Ukraine although he told broadcaster Tucker Carlson in 2024 that he never met the Russian president in person. Melnichenko has said he had no link to the invasion nor any political affiliations.

Translated excerpts from his interview with Danish newspaper Frihedsbrevet were reported by Russia’s global platform RTVI and the independent outlet Agentsvo. In it, Melnichenko said Moscow would be forced to respond if there’s an escalation by Trump when it comes to the war.

“If the escalation continues under [Donald] Trump, and the Russian leadership gets the impression that this is a problem that has no solution, it will lead to a world war,” he said.

Although it is unclear whether this would amount to the kind of escalation that Melnichenko is referring to, according to retired General Keith Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, the president is prepared to “really increase” U.S. sanctions for Russia in order to end the war.

During an interview with the New York Post on Thursday, Kellogg said the enforcement of sanctions on Russia is currently at “only about a 3” out of 10 but could be ramped up.

“You could really increase the sanctions—especially the latest sanctions [on oil production and exports],” he said.

Zelensky said on Friday he was willing to accept Trump’s deal for continued military aid in exchange for access to Ukraine’s rare earth materials.

“The Americans helped the most, and therefore the Americans should earn the most. And they should have this priority, and they will. I would also like to talk about this with President Trump,” Zelensky said.

His comments followed Trump’s Monday remarks in which he said he sought the “security” of rare earth elements in exchange for the billions of dollars in aid supplied by the U.S.

Meanwhile, Melnichenko predicted that if there is no escalation, the war will end this year, although a peace agreement would not be signed before new presidential elections in Ukraine.

Melnichenko also called the war “a tragedy” in the history of the Russian and Ukrainian peoples,” but said it would not end with Moscow’s defeat.

He added that Europe and Russia would have to restore ties and Ukraine find its place in the post-war world.

What People Are Saying

Retired General Keith Kellogg, the Trump administration’s special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, told the New York Post: “…If there’s anybody who understands leverage, it’s President Donald J. Trump, and you can see that with what he’s recently done.”

Kira Rudik, a member of Ukraine’s Parliament, wrote on X, formerly Twitter, on Friday: “Sanctions enforcement on Russia is ‘only about a three’ on a pain scale of one to 10, says US envoy Keith Kellogg. Well, it’s high time to level up and make all the sanctions actually work.”

What Happens Next?

Trump has said he will soon be speaking with Putin and Zelensky.