Putin’s Western Adversaries Are in Disarray

Vladimir Putin might be able to capitalize on the adage of “never to waste a good crisis” as democracies of France, Germany, Romania and South Korea, which have been vocal opponents of his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, face political ructions of their own.

Western-led sanctions punishing Russia’s economy had accelerated Putin’s push for the Global South to take over the mantle of the world’s financial system and now the Russian president can relish how democracies that are the most strident against his aggression are in disarray.

Chaos has convulsed the heart of the European Union whose sanctions and military support for Kyiv have proven to be a thorn in the side of Putin’s intentions.

France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, will appoint a new prime minister after his prior pick, Michel Barnier, resigned following a no-confidence parliamentary vote. In Germany, the coalition government collapsed after Olaf Scholz sacked his finance minister, putting the chancellor under pressure to quit before February’s elections.

“Every bit of European chaos is good for Putin,” Itay Lotem, an expert in French politics from London’s University of Westminster, told Newsweek, even if it was not all caused by Russia. “The current goal of Putin’s Russia is to sow division in Europe and undermine any rules-based European cooperation.

“Any type of instability in one of the big European states will make it harder to reach a European consensus on common economic policies and particularly defense,” he said. “In terms of the immediate effect of the chaos on French policy towards Russia, not having a government will make it a lot harder to articulate any such national policy.”

The consequences continue to be felt of Macron’s surprise decision to hold a snap parliamentary election in June which returned a polarized parliament split three ways between fractions of the left, the center-right and the far-right.

Socialists joined those on the left and far-right to remove Barnier. It is unclear how the National Rally (RN) party headed by far-right leader Marine Le Pen will come out of the crisis and it might be tricky for Macron to find a replacement for Barnier who will please all sides.

“The Russian regime will see any strengthening of the RN as a positive sign, as the party is aligned with Russian policy and has received Russian support in the past,” said Lotem.

In Romania, on NATO’s eastern flank member where Russian drones regularly fall, Moscow is accused of propelling far-right contender Calin Georgescu in the first round of an election whose results were annulled by the country’s constitutional court.

The court’s order followed Romanian President Klaus Iohannis declassifying intelligence reports that alleged a Russian interference campaign aimed at Georgescu on TikTok and Telegram.

Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has dismissed the allegations as “groundless” and said they were part of a campaign of “anti-Russian hysteria.”

But in an assessment of the elections emailed to Newsweek, the Atlantic Council think tank described “a near-miss” in the NATO ally, with senior fellow at the think tank Ian Brzezinski saying that the country “almost had a presidential election stolen by foreign intervention.”

Daniel Fried, a fellow at the Atlantic Council, said, “we can expect Russian denunciation and a wave of feigned outrage.” The former ambassador added that the Kremlin seems “to support political extremes in Romania” and has been “promoting through statements and trolls a narrative of Western oppression and domination of Romania.”

Meanwhile, thousands of miles away, protests have raged in South Korea, whose president Yoon Suk Yeol survived an impeachment vote on Saturday after attempting to impose martial law. There are increased tensions on the peninsula especially with the north contributing troops and munitions to Putin’s war effort against Ukraine.

Rachel Beatty Riedl, director of Cornell University’s Center on Global Democracy, told Newsweek that Yoon was a partner of the Biden administration’s democracy agenda who was willing to raise North Korean human rights as a condition for political rapprochement in ways that pushed against the interests of China.

Now, allies who saw Seoul as a strong democratic partner will be taking stock of the democratic resilience of its citizens, political parties, and institutional checks.

“South Korea’s political upheaval may have significant consequences for broader geostrategic alignment,” she said. “Autocratic rivals, however, will not hesitate to paint the turmoil as an example of instability and, therefore, as undesirable.”

Eric Gomez, senior fellow at the Cato Institute, told Newsweek, “the domestic political instability in South Korea, France, and other democracies is probably welcomed by Putin, though the follow on effects are difficult to predict.”

He said the turbulence will have some impact on Russia and the war in Ukraine but the biggest player in that picture is the United States and incoming President Donald Trump.

“The outsize role of the U.S. in providing weapons to Ukraine means that what the U.S. does is more likely to be decisive,” Gomez said adding that he did not think Moscow or Pyongyang would exploit the turmoil too aggressively before Trump’s inauguration.

“Both have reason to believe that the incoming administration will want to negotiate directly. But if North Korea attacks South Korea or Russia does something to escalate then it may reduce the chances of talking with Trump.”

Newsweek has contacted the Russian foreign ministry for comment.