A new survey from Emerson College Polling shows that Republicans are within 10 points of the Democratic candidates for the U.S. Senate seat in Minnesota.
The poll shows the latest data for both Republicans and Democrats potentially obtaining the seat vacated by retiring Democratic Senator Tina Smith.
Newsweek reached out to political analysts via email on Wednesday for comment.
Why It Matters
Control of the closely divided Senate in 2026 could hinge on a handful of states, including Minnesota, where Democrats have held both Senate seats for years but now must defend an open seat amid a polarized national climate.
What To Know
According to the poll, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and U.S. Representative Angie Craig both lead Republican Michele Tafoya in potential races.
Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) candidate Flanagan led Tafoya 47 percent to 41 percent, with 12 percent supporting someone else or undecided. In a separate pairing, DFL candidate Craig also led Tafoya, 47 percent to 40 percent, with 13 percent supporting someone else or undecided.
Emerson’s statewide survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted from February 6 to February 8, 2026, and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The poll also showed Democratic U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar substantially leading Republican Mike Lindell—MyPillow CEO and staunch supporter of President Donald Trump—in a possible matchup for governor, 53 percent to 31 percent.
Lindell texted Newsweek, “Fake news!” when reached for comment about the poll.
What People Are Saying
Tafoya, on X Tuesday: “This race is about more than us. This is about the future of our great state and ensuring our Minnesota values are not silenced by elite liberal politicians. I have spent my life not backing down and refusing to be pushed around. Thank you @SD42GOP for allowing me to share my story and why I am running for the United States Senate. Together, we will defend our freedoms and preserve the conservative values that make Minnesota strong.”
Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, on X this month: “These are dark times in Minnesota, and @TinaSmithMN and I want to talk about what is making us hopeful. Minnesotans are showing up for their neighbors. They’re saying, ‘Who do we want to stand up for us in Washington?’ @peggyflanagan is that fighter.”
Craig, on X Tuesday: “MAGA Michele has made it clear she’ll stand by this administration’s lawless agenda no matter what. Minnesota can’t afford to hand Donald Trump another rubber stamp in the U.S. Senate. http://angiecraig.com”
What Happens Next
Minnesota’s statewide primary for the 2026 cycle is scheduled for August 11, and the general election is set for November 3.
