Sherrod Brown’s Fortunes Reversed in Ohio as Bernie Moreno Leads Polls

Incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown’s re-election bid in Ohio is facing a surprising setback, as new polls show his Republican challenger, Bernie Moreno, taking the lead.

Polls previously showed Brown with a consistent lead, but two new polls showed that Moreno is now in the lead for the first time.

One of those polls was conducted by ActiVote, which found that Moreno has a 2-point lead over Brown, 51 percent to his 49 percent. The poll was conducted between August 16 and September 22 among 400 likely voters.

Another poll, conducted by RMG Research between September 18 and 20, also found that Moreno had a 2-point lead, 48 percent to Brown’s 46 percent. The poll surveyed 781 likely voters.

Although Moreno’s lead was within the margin of error in both polls, they indicate that the race is too close to call and is therefore anybody’s to win in November. The Cook Political Report shows the Senate race in Ohio as a toss-up.

Despite lacking support from the Ohio Republican Party, Moreno has received an endorsement from former President Donald Trump.

According to pollster Scott Rasmussen, this could be lending Moreno a boost in the polls.

“Moreno benefits from the fact that Donald Trump is leading the presidential race in Ohio by 11 points Still, Brown is supported by 93 percent of Harris voters while Moreno is currently supported by 83 percent of Trump voters,” pollster Scott Rasmussen wrote in a post on X, citing the RMG Research poll. According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads in Ohio by 9.6 points. RealClearPolitics also has the former president ahead by 9 points in the Buckeye State.

Newsweek has contacted Moreno and Brown for comment via online form and email.

Previous polls had shown Brown leading by a narrow margin. The most recent Morning Consult poll put Brown just 2 points ahead of Moreno, 46 percent to his 44 percent. The previous Morning Consult poll put Brown 3 points ahead.

Another poll, conducted by Emerson College and The Hill between September 3 and 5, put Brown just 1 point ahead—within the poll’s 3-point margin of error.

Meanwhile, the previous ActiVote poll, conducted in July and August, had given Brown a slightly bigger 5-point lead. However, his lead was still within the poll’s 4.9 percent margin of error.

In addition, a poll conducted in June by the Remington Research Group put Brown 6 points ahead—a lead outside of the poll’s 3.1 percent margin of error.

The biggest lead for Brown so far was in a National Public Affairs poll from May which put him 8 points ahead of his opponent.

RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker puts Brown 3.6 points ahead.

Voters in Ohio have historically fluctuated between choosing Democrats or Republicans to represent them in the Senate. In the last three Senate elections, Republicans have been selected.

This year’s critical race could determine which party control the Senate, which is currently held by the Democrats. If the Democrats win the presidency and all their incumbents win back their Senate seats, including in Ohio, they would only need to win one or more open seats in Arizona, Michigan and Maryland to keep control of the chamber.

But if Donald Trump wins the presidency and the Republicans pick up West Virginia, where Senator Joe Manchin is retiring, the party just needs to win one more seat to take control of the Senate.

Polling shows that the Republicans are favored to regain control of the Senate, with Decision Desk HQ predicting that they have a 70 percent chance of doing so.