Four more excellent Sweet 16 games are in store this evening.
Who will join Purdue, Arizona, Iowa and Illinois in the Elite 8?
Let’s get right into everything you need to know ahead of tonight’s outstanding slate: St. John’s vs. Duke and Michigan State vs. UConn in the East, and Michigan vs. Alabama and Tennessee vs. Iowa State in the Midwest.
For trasnparency’s sake, below is a look at how our 2026 NCAA Tournament ATS picks have gone to date. Can we stay profitable tonight?
Notes:
- Odds below come from DraftKings as of Friday morning (all times ET).
- You can trade on each of today’s games at Kalshi. See below for instructions on how to sign up and score a welcome bonus with Kalshi promo code WEEK.
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St. John’s (5) vs. Duke (1) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
East Region (Washington, DC), 7:10 p.m. (CBS)
- Spread: SJU +6.5 (-108); DUKE -6.5 (-112)
- Moneyline: SJU +230; DUKE -285
- Total: 141.5 (o-105; u-115)
St. John’s vs. Duke Injury News, Analysis
Injuries loom as a major storyline in this matchup. While St. John’s is at full strength, two starters for Duke — junior point guard Caleb Foster and forward Patrick Ngongba II — are listed as questionable on the NCAA D1 Men’s Basketball Player Availability Report.
Ngongba played 13 minutes off the bench in Duke’s win over TCU last weekend. Despite committing four fouls in limited minutes, he was effective, with 4 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists, though he did commit a season-high 4 turnovers.
Foster, who has not played since suffering a foot injury vs. North Carolina in the regular season finale, is expected to be a game-time decision. Ball security will be a major factor if Duke is without its floor general, as the Blue Devils had 17 turnovers vs. TCU in the Round of 32 and eight against Siena in the Round of 64. Duke also not only shot poorly (41% from the floor, 19% from 3) vs. 16-seed Siena, but finished with just 11 assists on 24 made field goals.
Scoring on St. John’s will be one of the biggest challenges of the season for Cameron Boozer and Co., especially if Foster is unable to go. The Johnnies are top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they have given up just 52, 53 and 65 points, respectively, to Connecticut, 12-seed Northern Iowa and 4-seed Kansas in their last three games.
I’ll be backing St. John’s to at least cover if Foster is ruled out, but I don’t recommend tackling this game’s spread until we hear an announcement on Foster’s status.
As soon as this matchup was set, this game’s Under jumped out at me as one of the best bets of the Sweet 16, and that’s what I’m going with tonight (though Under 140.5 is not nearly the slam-dunk that u142.5 was when this game’s total was first set).
Both these defenses are excellent, and that should make for a rock fight between two of the most physical teams in the country.
As for my pick, I’ll take Duke to advance, barely.
Prediction: Duke to advance
Best bet: Under 140.5 (-110) — 1 unit
Alabama (4) vs. Michigan (1) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
Midwest Region (Chicago), 7:35 p.m. (TBS/truTV)
- Spread: ALA +8.5 (-102); MICH -8.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: ALA +370; MICH -485
- Total: 172.5 (o-115; u-105)
Alabama vs. Michigan Injury News, Analysis
Aden Holloway, the Crimson Tide’s second-leading scorer, will miss tonight’s game due to suspension, while Michigan’s L.J. Cason is out for the season with a torn ACL.
On paper, this game looks similar to last night’s SEC-Big 12 showdown between Arkansas and Arizona, which quickly went sideways for the Razorbacks due to their inability to slow down the Wildcats.
Bama, which made 19-of-42 3-point attempts in its 90-65 win over Texas Tech in the Sweet 16, should be able to hang with Michigan for a while tonight, especially if it’s hot from outside. The question is whether Nate Oats’ team will be up to the task defensively against arguably the biggest, most athletic team in the nation. In Yaxel Lendeborg, Morez Johnson Jr. and Aday Mara, the Wolverines boast the top front line in the country.
That trio is capable of taking over against a Bama squad that has allowed opponents to grab 32.7 percent of their missed shots this season, good for the No. 287-ranked defensive rebounding rate.
Last night, taking the heavy favorites (Arizona) to go over their team total and cover worked out perfectly, and I’m sticking to that formula in this one. Yes, Bama is a better defensive team than Arkansas. At the same time, it’s hardly a hot take to suggest that the Tide — who have given up at least 92 points 11 times this year — aren’t good enough defensively to stifle Michigan, and Bama’s preferred pace (as up-and-down as possible) would play right into Michigan’s hands.
One last note on Alabama: last year, after drilling 25 3-pointers in a 113-88 win over BYU in the Sweet 16, the Crimson Tide lost to Duke, 85-65, in the Elite 8, while shooting just 8-of-32 from downtown.
Prediction: Michigan to advance
Best bets:
- Michigan Team Total Over 91.5 points (-110 at DK) — 1 unit
- Michigan -9.5 (-105 at DK) — 1 unit
Michigan State (3) vs. UConn (2) Betting Odds, Pick, Best Bets
East Region (Washington, DC), 9:45 p.m. (CBS)
- Spread: MSU +2.5 (-118); UCONN -2.5 (-102)
- Moneyline: MSU +105; UCONN -125
- Total: 136.5 (o-108; u-112)
Michigan State vs. UConn Injury News, Analysis
No major contributors for either the Spartans or the Huskies are expected to miss this contest. Like Iowa-Nebraska last night, I’m having a hard time choosing who will win this matchup.
Taking the Under in a clash between two teams with top-30 teams in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency is a roll of the dice, but both MSU and UConn are a bit better defensively than offensively, and both favor low-possesion games (neither average more than 66 possessions per 40 minutes).
With that in mind, a half-unit on the Under is the way to go. I also like Michigan State, which is a top-10 rebounding team — on both the offensive and defensive glance — to advance, and UConn has been a bit too inconsistent offensively down the stretch for me to take them over a battle-tested Big Ten team like MSU.
Prediction: Michigan State to advance
Best bet: Under 136.5 (-112 at DK) — 1 unit
Tennessee (6) vs. Iowa State (2)
Midwest Region (Chicago), 10:10 p.m. (TBS/truTV)
- Spread: TENN +4.5 (-115); ISU -4.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: TENN +154; ISU -185
- Total: 139.5 (o-108; u-112)
Tennessee vs. Iowa State Injury News, Analysis
The biggest injury concern of the entire Sweet 16 is probably the still-uncertain status of Iowa State star forward Joshua Jefferson (ankle). He’s listed as questionable tonight, with ESPN’s Pete Thamel reporting that Jefferson will decide whether he can suit up based on how pregame shootaround goes this afternoon.
Jefferson is his team’s second-leading scorer, leading rebounder and is second on his team in assists per game at 4.8. His potential absence would be most sorely felt in the rebounding battle, as Iowa State faces a Tennessee squad that is No. 1 in the nation in offensive rebounding.
Whether Jefferson is able to go or not, there are a couple of reasons to like ISU in this matchup. Cyclones coach T.J. Otzelberger’s team is top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and few teams in the country are better at forcing turnovers.
To me, that’s the biggest reason to go with the favorites, as the Volunteers are No. 223 nationally in turnover rate, at 17.3. Iowa State (No. 8 in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.7) is also well-suited to outgun a Tennessee team that gives up a ton of 3PA (Vols opponents take 44.9 percent of their shots from downtown).
I’m not quite sold on Iowa State covering, especially given that Jefferson might be sidelined, but I do like this team to move on to face Michigan.
Prediction: Iowa State to advance
Best bet: Iowa State moneyline (-185 at DK) — 1 unit
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