Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz said he expects New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and California Governor Gavin Newsom to be the two leading contenders for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, laying out his forecast in the latest episode of his Verdict podcast, which aired on Monday.
Cruz and co-host Ben Ferguson played clips from the Munich Security Conference featuring potential Democratic hopefuls, using those exchanges to argue that the party’s progressive wing is unprepared on national security—a framing central to his rationale for naming Ocasio-Cortez, often referred to by her initials AOC, and Newsom.
Why It Matters
Cruz’s call places a progressive firebrand and a high-profile governor at the top of his Democratic leaderboard, signaling how Republicans may frame the opposing field on foreign policy and Israel as the 2028 campaign conversation accelerates after the midterm elections on November.
What To Know
On the show, Cruz said, “I actually think AOC is one of two frontrunners for the Democrat nomination in 2028. I think it is Gavin Newsom and AOC. Newsom probably is marginally ahead right now.”
He further predicted Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer would try to nudge Ocasio-Cortez toward a presidential run so she doesn’t primary him in 2028, adding, “If AOC runs for president, [New York Democratic Mayor Zohran] Mamdani is going to run for Senate against Chuck Schumer.”
The episode included a clip from Munich in which Ocasio-Cortez was asked whether the U.S. should commit troops to defend Taiwan if China invaded; she replied in part, “we want to make sure that we are moving in all of our economic research and our global positions to avoid any such confrontation,” declining to directly answer on troop commitments.
“I…am hearing in my head Kamala Harris saying: ‘Wow that’s a word salad,'” commented Cruz, referring to criticism that was at times lofted at the former vice president during the 2024 presidential campaign.
A national polling average from RaceToTheWhiteHouse.com shows Democrats split on several candidates, with former Vice President Kamala Harris at 27.5 percent, Newsom at 22.7 percent, Ocasio-Cortez at 9 percent, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 8.7 percent, indicating a fluid early field.
As of Monday, Newsom had a 31 percent chance of being the Democratic nominee in 2028, according to prediction market Kalshi. Ocasio-Cortez was a distant second with 12 percent.
What People Are Saying
Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz on his podcast: “I don’t think Schumer can beat AOC in a primary and I don’t think Schumer can beat Mamdani in a primary.”
California Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom told CBS in October 2025: “I’m looking forward to who presents themselves in 2028 and who meets that moment. And that’s the question for the American people.”
New York Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, when asked about a poll showing her beating potential Republican 2028 nominee Vice President JD Vance: “Listen, these polls, like three years out, are, you know, they are what they are. But let the record show: I would stomp him. I would stomp him!”
What Happens Next
Ocasio‑Cortez has repeatedly declined to say she is running for president, while also refusing to rule out a bid and fueling speculation through high‑profile appearances and policy‑forward answers to presidential hypotheticals. Newsom, by contrast, has openly acknowledged he would be “lying” if he denied considering a White House run after the 2026 midterms, even as he later downplayed his intentions.
