Ted Cruz’s Chances of Losing Texas, According to Polls

Texas Republican Ted Cruz has a lead of between one and seven percentage points over Democratic challenger Colin Allred in his battle to secure reelection to the Senate, according to recent polling.

Cruz and Allred, who currently sits in the House of Representatives, engaged in a debate that turned fiery at times on Tuesday. It is expected to be the only one in this campaign. The rivals clashed over a range of topics including abortion, the participation of transgender athletes in women’s sports, and the U.S. Capitol riots of January 6, 2021.

The Republicans are hoping to seize the Senate in November after failing to do so during the 2022 midterm elections when a widely anticipated ‘red wave’ failed to materialize. There are currently 51 senators affiliated with the Democrats against 49 Republicans, but the GOP is widely expected to pick up the West Virginia seat occupied by moderate Joe Manchin who is not seeking reelection. Cruz’s Texas seat is one of the most vulnerable to the Democrats as they try to offset this and any other losses.

The most recent Texas Senate poll was conducted by ActiVote between October 1 and 16, with 400 likely voters in the state polled. The survey gave Cruz a 6-point lead with 53 percent of the vote against 47 percent for Allred, ahead of the 4.9 percent margin of error.

Morning Consult polled 2,048 likely Texan voters between October 6 and 15, giving Cruz a one-point lead with 46 percent of the vote against 45 percent. Notably, a previous Morning Consult survey conducted between September 9 and 18 put Allred ahead by one point.

A YouGov poll conducted for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin gave Cruz a seven-point lead, with 51 percent of the vote compared with 44 percent for Allred. The survey of 1,091 likely voters was held over October 2-10 and had a 2.97 point margin of error.

Separately, the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs surveyed 1,329 likely voters in Texas between September 26 and October 10, with the poll giving Cruz a four-point lead with 50 percent of the vote against Allred’s 46 percent. The poll had a 2.69 percentage point margin of error.

Cruz had a six-point lead over Allred, according to a Marist College poll of 1,186 likely Texan voters conducted between October 3 and 7. It put the Republican on 51 percent against 46 percent for his challenger. This poll has a 3.6 percentage point margin of error.

Newsweek contacted representatives of Senator Cruz and Representative Allred for comment via email on Friday.

According to the latest campaign finance figures released by their respective campaigns in the third quarter of 2024, Allred raised $30.3 million for his Senate campaign, ahead of Cruz who pulled in $21 million across three separate accounts. During a recent Fox News appearance, Cruz said he was being “viciously outspent” and “pounded every day” and urged viewers to donate to his campaign.