The 12 vs 5 Seed Upset You Should Pick in Your March Madness Bracket

We made it, friends.

The craziest and most chaotic sports tournament of the year (sorry, World Cup) is about to begin for both women and men, as March Madness kicks off next week.

The men’s bracket has just been unveiled, and we have four regions full of favorites, underdogs, and new heroes to be discovered over the next three weeks of play from across the United States.

But it’s more than just the national title up for grabs. As the colleges fight tooth and nail for the trophy, so are you, as you fill out your bracket to defeat your friends who become foes in March.

Before you fill out your bracket, the key to winning it all can be based on which underdog you pick. The No. 12 over No. 5 seed is a matchup everyone looks at to see if they can find an edge, and it’s no different in 2026.

Here are the 12 seeds you want to ride with, and which you should be wary of picking against the 5 seed favorites.

St. John's Red Storm player Dillon Mitchell

East Region: 5. St. John’s vs. 12. Northern Iowa

Do you want to see a rock fight? Two of the slowest, most defensive-minded teams in the country are set to do battle in the opening round of the tournament. While Northern Iowa’s style is a hard counter to most teams, St. John’s welcomes it and does it better.

South Region: 5. Vanderbilt vs. 12. McNeese

Amir Khan is back with the McNeese Cowboys, and they’re going to try to pull a sequel like they did last year. While the Cowboys are one of the best turnover teams in the country, Vanderbilt might be underseeded as a five seed. They’re well-rounded and should be too strong for even the “aura” of the Cowboys.

South Region: 5. Wisconsin vs. 12. High Point

An inverse of St. John’s against Northern Iowa, this is a fight between two teams that can run up the score. There will be a lot of excitement around High Point and their scorers, but Wisconsin has the firepower to not only keep up but outshoot the Panthers.

West Region: 5. Texas Tech vs. 12. Akron

If I’m looking at a possible upset with these seeds, the Akron Zips might be the best bet. They can score at will, have the experience needed in a big-time game like this, and aren’t going to play with fear against the higher-seeded adversary. Akron’s Tavari Johnson will be a name you hear a lot if the Zips can pull off this upset.