The 1600: Reflections on the Near Assassination of Donald Trump

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Good morning,

🎶Friday Listening: Johnny Cash – God’s Gonna Cut You Down

I’ve been in meetings this week planning our coverage for the anniversary of Trump’s near-assassination in Butler, Pennsylvania on Sunday. Can you believe that was only a year ago? What a wild period in American history that was: the CNN debate, Trump gets shot, Biden drops out, Kamala swaps in… all in the span of, like, a month.

It’s worth taking a beat to remember what happened on that fairground in western Pennsylvania, because there are still so many unanswered—maybe unanswerable—questions about a moment that came within a quarter-inch of changing the course of history. In fact, it probably did change the course of history in terms of being the moment that solidified Donald Trump’s political comeback. Would he have won had he not been shot? Perhaps, but his victory was a foregone conclusion in my mind as soon as he put his fist in the air, as captured in that iconic photo by the AP’s Evan Vucci (one of the greatest pieces of photojournalism of my lifetime. Still in awe when I look at it).

Because even if you loathe Trump, as so many do, you must admit that his handling of that moment in Butler… jumping up from a pile of Secret Service agents, blood smeared on his face, fist raised, “Fight!”…. was both politically brilliant and incredibly, badass cool.

And yet, despite the fact that we came so close to watching the former and future American president murdered on live television, it doesn’t feel like Butler was this momentous event, does it? Part of that, I think, is just how the news cycle plays these days. Part of it is an anti-Trump bias in the media, probably. Part of it is how little we still know about the motives of the kid who almost became the Gavrilo Princip of the 21st century. But it’s notable how the near assassination of the Republican candidate for president did not really lead to a moment of national unity or reflection that, I think, so many of us were hoping for.

I remember watching the RNC the following week, when Trump came out on the last night to deliver his convention speech. I remember thinking about how he looked different: older, more vulnerable than we were used to seeing him with that big bandage on his injured ear. He started his speech in this really reflective tone—very unusual for him—talking about how painful it was to discuss what had happened the prior Saturday and how “you’ll never hear it from me a second time, because it’s actually too painful to tell.” It was an absolutely gripping moment. I thought, fleetingly, that not only was he going to win regardless of who the Dems were about to swap in for Joe, but that maybe he really was saved by some kind of divine intervention, and that we were about to see a new side of Donald Trump.

It didn’t really work out that way. By the halfway point of the RNC speech he was back to his laundry list of grievances interspersed with random asides about Kid Rock and his poll numbers. Trump did go on to win decisively, helped along by Kamala Harris being an awful opponent, but he hasn’t really even tried to capitalize on that moment of national relief after Butler by trying to unify the country during his second term. It’s a shame, really. It feels like a lost opportunity.

As for the shooter, quick… can you remember his name off the top of your head? I didn’t think so. Thomas Crooks, the 20-year-old weirdo who somehow managed to crawl onto that roof and get a clean line of sight to the biggest target in the world, left virtually no trace. No social media footprint, no friends, no apparent motive. A registered Republican who donated to the Democrats and had no obvious beef with Trump? What? It’s no wonder there have been so many conspiracy theories about what him. I think as humans, we have a very hard time comprehending when trivial people are able to have such an outsized impact on history. Oswald, Sirhan Sirhan, Chapman, Ray, the dude who almost killed Reagan to make Jodie Foster fall in love with him (didn’t work). These guys were all stone cold losers who just got lucky, or almost lucky.

Thankfully for the country, Crooks’ joins their company in the “almost lucky” column.

Trump Finds Retreating From World Stage Is Easier Said Than Done

When Donald Trump campaigned for the presidency in 2016, 2020 and 2024, he made one overarching promise to voters: no more costly overseas entanglements.

In a video rolling out his foreign policy agenda during the 2024 campaign, Trump called himself “the only president who rejected the catastrophic advice of many of Washington’s generals, bureaucrats, and the so-called diplomats who only know how to get us into conflict, but they don’t know how to get us out.”

Now, approaching six months into his second term, Trump has publicly toyed with the idea of annexing Canada and invading Greenland; ordered a series of missile strikes on Iran; and mused about the possibility of regime change in Tehran (he later backed off that threat), while also engaging in an on-again, off-again trade war with much of the world. Read more.

Also happening:

• US military: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered a sweeping overhaul of the military’s drone strategy, calling for accelerated modernization, expanded production and the elimination of regulations that could hinder innovation, according to a video released by the Pentagon. Read more.

• Musk’s new party: A new poll revealed that Elon Musk’s recently-announced America Party has garnered significant support from Republican voters, which could raise concern among GOP lawmakers ahead of the 2026 midterms. Read more.

This is a preview of The 1600—Tap here to get this newsletter delivered straight to your inbox.