We made it.
March Madness has finally arrived, and you are excited to jump into the endless possibilities that a new bracket brings.
A logo catches your eye, and you push it forward without even checking its seed. You see a No. 12 vs. No. 5 matchup that everyone is talking about on social media, so you pick the underdog-who-really-isn’t-an-underdog to make it not only to the Round of 32 but the Sweet 16 as well.
Wait.
Before you fill out your lone bracket (I’m sure you wouldn’t do multiple, right?), check on these three things that could be the difference between a busted bracket and your friends wondering if you’re a basketball savant.
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Defense Wins Championships
Defense. Defense. Defense. There are going to be a lot of electrifying offenses that catch your eye, or superstar freshmen projected to go in the lottery of the upcoming NBA Draft. You’re going to want to pick a team that can explode with points, regardless of how sturdy their defense is.
But when it comes to success in the tournament, an above-average defense is a consistent trait of teams that go all the way. When a minnow eliminates a shark, it’s generally because that small fish can muddy the waters and drag the superior opponent to their level instead of the other way around.
Experienced Guards Are Priceless
While the freshmen guards are going to take a lot of the headlines, teams with veterans in the backcourt leading the way are extremely important a lot of the time when it comes to who will win a game.
In a single-elimination tournament, you want the ball in the hands of a point guard who knows the offense and the moment. While it’s easy to want to be wowed by the youth of a team that pops more than a senior guard averaging 13 points and 9 assists, the latter is often the one who rises to the occasion over a flamethrower freshman that averages over 20.
Don’t Get Dog Trigger Happy
We all love underdogs. It’s fun to be different. It’s exciting to see everyone else pick the same five teams to make the Final Four and then feel smug putting a No. 12, a No. 6, and a No. 3 along with Duke after hours of consuming mid-major basketball.
But let’s be clear here: the favorites are favorites for a reason. While you’ll have an extreme outlier year like a few seasons ago, when Miami, UConn, San Diego State, and Florida Atlantic made the Final Four, it’s better to play it smart.
66% of Final Four seeds since the tournament expanded 50 years ago have been either the best or second-best team in their region. While hitting that No. 3 or above seed you truly believe in is important and can put you over the top, remember that there’s always more upsets in your head than what actually happens during the run of the tournament.
