Tim Walz vs. JD Vance: What Polls, Betting Odds Show Ahead of Debate

The Democratic and GOP vice presidential nominees are set to face off Tuesday in their first and only scheduled debate, with betting odds favoring Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and favorability polls showing he leads Ohio Senator JD Vance.

The debate, hosted by CBS, will take place in New York City on October 1 at 9 p.m. ET. It comes less than a month after Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump squared off in Philadelphia. Most post-debate polls showed Harris maintained her lead or slightly pulled ahead of Trump. But the presidential race remains extremely tight, with most predicted leads falling within the margin of error or not weighted to consider the Electoral College.

While vice presidential debates are typically rather low profile, Harris and Trump have no second debate scheduled. So this may be the last time candidates on the two tickets will debate before November’s election, which is just 38 days away.

Online betting on the vice presidential debate has already begun, with dozens of wagers on which phrases will be said first, whose names will be mentioned and who is projected to win, among other predictions.

BetOnline lists Walz as the favorite with a substantial lead at -300, while Vance is at +200. This indicates that Vance is viewed as the underdog and that Walz is firmly positioned as the favorite.

Polymarket, a large online prediction market, shows users bet that Walz has a 76 percent chance of winning the debate according to polls. The bet is over $47,000.

Favorability polls show Walz leading Vance as well. FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate favorability poll shows Vance with an 11.3-point gap between voters who view him favorably and unfavorably, with 34.4 percent having a favorable view and 45.7 percent an unfavorable one.

Meanwhile, Walz has a much closer gap of 3.8 percentage points on his favorability ratings, with FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate showing 40.1 percent of voters viewing him favorably and 36.3 percent having an unfavorable view of him, as of Friday afternoon.

Newsweek reached out to Vance’s and Walz’s press teams for comment via email on Friday.

Walz has been prepping for the matchup by receiving guidance from Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (standing in for Vance), lawyer and political adviser Zayn Siddique, and top campaign staffers Liz Allen and Chris Schmitter, among others.

Vance has said he does not need to prepare for the debate because meeting and talking with the American people is sufficient. At a campaign rally, he told a reporter: “The way I’m doing debate prep is by spending time with these fine people—this is how I do debate prep.”

In any case, Jacob Reses, one of Vance’s closest friends and his campaign’s chief of staff, and Jason Miller, a senior Trump campaign adviser, are said to be assisting him ahead of next week’s event.