Top 5 Favorites To Replace Pope Francis After First Day of Conclave

The first day of the papal conclave ended with black smoke billowing from the Sistine Chapel, signaling that no new pope had been chosen after the first ballot. Here is a look at what betting odds say about the frontrunner to become the next leader of the Catholic Church.

Why It Matters

Whoever becomes the next pope will instantly become perhaps the most recognizable living religious figure, holding considerable sway over the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics. The conclave began on Wednesday to elect the successor to Pope Francis, who died on April 21 after leading the church since 2013.

On Wednesday, 133 cardinals gathered at the Vatican to elect a new pope—a process that has no set time frame. Conclaves have lasted for years, historically, though the most recent ones have lasted for only a few days. A candidate must receive two-thirds majority to become the next pope. The election a new pope will be signaled by white smoke from the chapel.

What To Know

The conclave is shrouded in privacy, so there’s no clear way to know who cardinals are considering from the outside. But that hasn’t stopped traders from betting big on who the next cardinal could be.

Here’s a look at the top five favorites to replace Pope Francis in three key betting markets.

Polymarket

• Pietro Parolin — 28 percent likelihood
• Luis Antonio Tagle — 20 percent likelihood
• Matteo Zuppi — 10 percent likelihood
• Pierbattista Pizzaballa — 9 percent likelihood
• Peter Erdo — 8 percent likelihood

Kalshi

• Pietro Parolin — 30 percent
• Luis Antonio Tagle — 22 percent
• Pierbattista Pizzaballa — 11 percent
• Matteo Zuppi — 10 percent
• Peter Turkson — 8 percent

OddsChecker

• Pietro Parolin — 29 percent
• Luis Antonio Tagle — 23 percent
• Pierbattista Pizzaballa — 13 percent
• Matteo Zuppi — 13 percent
• Peter Erdo — 9 percent

What People Are Saying

Cardinal Vincent Nichols, the Archbishop of Westminster, told The Times: “When the conclave begins, it is very much about prayerful listening and trying to be attentive. I’ve got to be still enough inside of me to catch the resonance of what is being said.”

Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, the dean of the College of Cardinals, speaking before the conclave began: “Today’s world expects much from the church regarding the safeguarding of those fundamental human and spiritual values without which human coexistence will not be better nor bring good to future generations.”

What Happens Next

The cardinals are expected to continue voting on Thursday as billions of people across the globe watch closely for signs of the new pope.