Trump Demands Investigation After Top Iowa Pollster Ends Election Polling
November 18, 2024
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President-elect Donald Trump is calling for an investigation into veteran Iowa pollster Ann Selzer following an announcement she was ending her operation, which comes weeks after her final poll dramatically missed the mark in predicting the presidential election outcome.
Selzer, known for her decades of polling work in Iowa, released a survey three days before the election showing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points—47 percent to 44 percent.
The actual results proved starkly different, with Trump winning by a margin that made the poll off by 16 points.
Hours after Selzer announced her leave in the Des Moines Register on Sunday, Trump took to his Truth Social platform to demand an investigation, suggesting the poll was intentionally misleading.
“A totally Fake poll that caused great distrust and uncertainty at a very critical time. She knew exactly what she was doing,” Trump posted, linking to Selzer’s retirement announcement. He further alleged “possible ELECTION FRAUD” by Selzer and the newspaper, calling them “now discredited.”
Newsweek contacted the Trump transition team via email on Sunday for additional comment.
In her announcement, Selzer defended her career and addressed the controversial final poll, noting that the timing of her departure had been planned well in advance. “Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” she wrote.
The pollster, who has maintained an A+ rating from polling analyst Nate Silver throughout her career, acknowledged the irony of ending her tenure with such a significant polling miss. “Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course. It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite,” Selzer stated in her column.
Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledges supporters during his caucus night event at the Iowa Events Center on January 15, 2024 in Des Moines, Iowa. Trump calls for investigation of Iowa pollster… Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump acknowledges supporters during his caucus night event at the Iowa Events Center on January 15, 2024 in Des Moines, Iowa. Trump calls for investigation of Iowa pollster Ann Selzer. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
She reflected on the nature of polling itself, writing, “Polling is a science of estimation, and science has a way of periodically humbling the scientist. So, I’m humbled, yet always willing to learn from unexpected findings.”
The controversy marks an unexpected end to Selzer’s distinguished career in political polling, which began during her college years. Her work has included projects for major news organizations including Bloomberg News, the Detroit Free Press, and the Indianapolis Star.
Addressing questions about her integrity in light of the polling miss, Selzer wrote, “To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew them to me as friends, colleagues, and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy.”
I’m attaching documents The Des Moines Register has made public. Oh, and mentions of “retirement” are inaccurate. It’s been a long-time plan that this election would be my last work of this sort. Other work continues.
My analysis document. https://t.co/GEbTQqcSro
— J. Ann Selzer (@jaselzer) November 17, 2024
Selzer later took to her X account to shoot down claims that she was retiring and explained her departure from election polling.
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