President Donald Trump faces legislative obstacles if he wants to make good on threats to pull the U.S. out of NATO.
However, Trump could try to sidestep 2023 legislation preventing a president from unilaterally withdrawing from the security bloc, with one U.S. political expert telling Newsweek he could ensure the U.S. “quit NATO in all but name.”
Trump has long railed at the alliance for not spending enough. Since the start of the Iran war on February 28, he has also been angered by what he perceives as a lack of assistance from NATO members.
When asked by the Daily Telegraph about whether he would withdraw the U.S. from the alliance that it helped found in 1949, Trump replied that an exit was “beyond reconsideration.”
Newsweek has contacted the White House and NATO for comment.
Law Prohibits NATO Withdrawal Without Congressional Backing
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also said this week that the U.S. may “reexamine” its role in NATO. However, a law that he spearheaded would mitigate against this.
In 2023, Rubio, along with Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) authored legislation requiring that any presidential decision to exit NATO needed either two-thirds Senate approval or to be authorized through an act of Congress.
It prohibits the president from suspending, terminating, denouncing or withdrawing the U.S. from the North Atlantic Treaty, which established NATO, without the advice and consent of the Senate or an act of Congress.
Lawmakers passed the measure as part of the fiscal 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, which former President Joe Biden signed into law.
But there is a possibility that Trump could sidestep this legislation by citing presidential authority over foreign policy.
The law as it stands could mean a constitutional conflict with Congress, which has never legally challenged a president withdrawing from a treaty.
If Trump declared he was pulling the U.S. out of the alliance, it’s unclear if Congress could sue him for ignoring the law, Curtis Bradley, the Allen M. Singer distinguished service professor at the University of Chicago Law School, told Politico in 2024.
This could be uncharted legislative and legal territory as the Supreme Court usually considers conflicts between the government’s branches as best resolved through the political process rather than judicial intervention.
Bradley also told Politico that one party would have to sue, which could be Congress “but it is not clear that the Republicans in Congress would support such a suit.”
“He simply doesn’t have the votes,” U.S. political expert Mark Shanahan, from the University of Surrey in England, told Newsweek on Wednesday, regarding congressional approval for Trump withdrawing. But “he could simply redeploy troops from Europe, refuse to uphold U.S. obligations to the treaty organization and quit NATO in all but name.”
“Trump sees Congress as merely a lapdog to be bypassed,” he added.
In any case, a withdrawal from NATO would not happen immediately, regardless of whether there is a protracted legal battle. Under the terms of the NATO treaty, a member state has to make a “notice of denunciation” and its membership would not officially end until after a one-year waiting period.
