Trump Wants to Impose 25% Tariffs on Colombia. Here’s What Could Cost More.

The possibility of a trade war erupted on Sunday between the United States and Colombia that could make coffee, flowers and raw materials more expensive for Americans, while U.S. corn growers and chemical companies could find billions of dollars in sales at risk.

Relations between the two countries quickly deteriorated after the South American country refused to receive U.S. military planes carrying deported immigrants. In response, President Trump said on social media that he would immediately impose a 25 percent tariff on all Colombian imports and escalate the tariffs to 50 percent in a week. Colombia’s president, Gustavo Petro, threatened his own 50 percent tariff hours later.

The United States is Colombia’s largest trading partner, but Colombian products make up a relatively minor share of U.S. imports. Some Colombian products are much more exposed than others.

While crude oil is by far the United States’ most valuable Colombian import, accounting for $5.4 billion of the $16 billion worth of products the United States imported from there in 2023, that’s just a tiny share of overall crude imports. Colombia accounted for more than a third of the total nursery stock imports and about 20 percent of coffee imports, according to the Census Bureau. That could mean more expensive coffee and flowers ahead of Valentine’s Day.

While the U.S. economy is a vastly bigger market than Colombia’s, it is also likely to feel some pain if the tariffs do get imposed. The industries most likely to be affected are agriculture and suppliers of the raw materials that are the building blocks of industry. U.S. makers of petroleum products, for instance, did about $2.5 billion in business with Colombia in 2023. The next most valuable annual exports to the country were corn ($1.2 billion) and chemicals ($1 billion).