Trump Winning Every Swing State is Most Likely Scenario—Nate Silver Model

Donald Trump could win every key swing state in the upcoming 2024 election, according to Nate Silver’s latest forecast.

Silver’s analysis gives Trump a 24.4 percent chance of winning all seven swing states in November, making it the most likely scenario to occur. Meanwhile, Harris has a 15.6 percent chance of winning all the battleground states, the forecast shows.

Silver’s simulation also shows that Harris would win the election if she took every swing state other than Arizona and Georgia, where Trump is currently ahead. However, according to Silver’ model, there is only a 1.7 percent probability of this happening, while there is a 3.4 percent chance that Harris will win Georgia and not Arizona, and a 2.9 percent probability that the Democrats will win Arizona, but not Georgia.

There is a 4.6 percent likelihood that the Republicans will win every swing state other than Nevada, where Harris is currently leading by a very small margin, according to the model. In this scenario, the vice president would win 232 electoral college votes and Trump would win the presidency.

Overall, Silver’s forecast shows that the most likely paths to victory for Harris occur when Democrats win a combination of three to five of the battleground states. If the vice president won only Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she would have 270 electoral college votes and have an 86.2 percent chance of winning overall, according to the analysis.

Polls currently show that Harris is currently leading in Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, while Trump is head in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker has the former president ahead by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, while Silver’s tracker shows the state is tied.

Silver’s forecast shows that if Harris were to only win Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada, she would have a 0.6 percent chance of winning the election. With Pennsylvania, her chances increase to 98.9 percent. But, according to Silver’s model, there is only a 2.9 percent likelihood of this scenario occurring.

In the past couple of weeks, electoral college predictions have flipped to show a greater likelihood of a Trump victory than onr for Harris. For example, Silver’s current forecast gives Trump a 53.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College vote to Harris’ 46.6 percent.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast has also shifted in favor of Trump, showing that he has a 51 percent chance of winning the election compared to Harris’ 49 percent. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ forecast currently shows that Trump is predicted to win in every battleground state, giving him 312 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 227.

It comes after four national polls released this month showed Trump overtaking Harris.

Nonetheless, the race remains a toss-up. “The race has gone from almost a toss-up to definitely a toss-up,” Jon Parker, senior lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek last week. However, he added that this “does not suggest that either campaign is winning or losing.”

Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.