Prediction markets tracking the likelihood that President Donald Trump could be removed from office under the 25th Amendment saw a steady climb this weekend, reflecting heightened public speculation as the Iran war intensifies and the president’s recent statements draw widespread scrutiny.
On Kalshi, one of the largest regulated prediction platforms, trading volume rose as users bet on whether Cabinet‑level action to declare the president unfit might occur.
The increase comes at a moment of global crisis, with the Iran war reshaping U.S. foreign policy and raising questions about decision‑making at the highest levels of government.
Why It Matters
The 25th Amendment is one of the most consequential constitutional mechanisms available, allowing the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare a president unable to perform the duties of office.
Even small movements in prediction markets can influence political narratives, investor sentiment, and public perception of stability inside the executive branch.
While prediction markets do not forecast outcomes with certainty, they often reflect real‑time shifts in public expectations.
What to Know
Prediction platform Kalshi hosted a contract titled, “Will the 25th Amendment be used during Trump’s presidency?” allowing traders to buy “Yes” or “No” shares.
Prices on the “Yes” side rose in recent days, from 28.6 percent to 35.1 percent within the last month. It is the second highest the number has been since the start of the second term. The poll started at 15 percent yes in January 2025, Kalshi shows.
Market participants reacted to a series of high‑profile controversies, including Trump’s recent social media posts about Iran, which has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, and threats targeting civilian infrastructure.
On Easter Sunday, Trump issued a profanity-laden message on Truth Social about the war.
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the F*****’ Strait you crazy b*******, or you’ll be living in Hell—JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah,” he wrote.
Senator Chris Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat, on Sunday urged the Cabinet to consider invoking the 25th Amendment, calling Trump’s post “completely, utterly unhinged.”
The 25th Amendment has never been used to remove a sitting president; its most common application has been temporary transfers of power during medical procedures.
Any invocation of the Amendment would require formal action by the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet, followed by potential congressional involvement—a process with multiple legal and political hurdles.
Critics of prediction markets argue that platforms like Kalshi can amplify political panic by monetizing speculation while supporters of prediction markets counter that they provide transparent, real‑time indicators of public expectations during moments of uncertainty.
What Happens Next
Kalshi’s market will continue trading as long as the contract remains open, with prices likely to fluctuate alongside political developments and the trajectory of the Iran war.
Analysts expect prediction markets to remain volatile as long as global tensions remain high and the administration faces intense scrutiny.
