Over the next two weeks, fantasy football begins its postseason, where teams with great regular seasons sometimes get upset by lesser franchises that fixed some lineup holes to improve their chances of winning. On any given Sunday, players can have impact games, but they can also trip up when the season is on the line, either due to an injury or a challenging matchup. In the end, lineup decisions can be critical to wins in tight matches.
In fantasy football leagues, the quarterback position has the highest floor and replacement value. My goal in my team building is to eliminate as many weekly lineup decisions as possible, but the player pool, injuries, matchups, and underperformance invite week-to-week massaging of all positions. Unfortunately, each NFL game doesn’t play out as expected, highlighting the long-term goal of trusting star players and knowing when to make difficult lineup decisions.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
In Week 14, many fantasy game managers will debate whether or not Jackson is a start, which hasn’t been the case for him for many years. He comes into this week with three consecutive losing days in fantasy points (8.65, 8.75, and 12.00) in four-point passing touchdown formats.
His surprising failure last week came against one of the worst defenses in the NFL (Cincinnati) at home. Jackson extended his scoreless streak to three games, and his value in the run game has been much lower over his last five starts (5/14, 9/36, 4/10, 7/11, and 6/27). In addition, his completion rate (56.0%) has been dismal across his previous four matchups, after showing success in this area in his first five games (72.9%).
In 2024, Jackson led all quarterbacks in fantasy points (481.10 – 28.30 per game). His success this year in his first five starts (26.76 FPPG) bodes well for another great season. A toe injury cost him three games, and Jackson is listed as questionable for this week’s matchup with an ankle issue. Baltimore expects him to play.
The Pittsburgh Steelers rank 28th against quarterbacks (283.65 fantasy points) while facing the second-most passing attempts (455) and third-highest completions (293). Quarterbacks have scored 24 touchdowns (19 passing and five rushing). Last season, Jackson faced the Steelers three times (17.95, 23.55, and 24.85 fantasy points), with the latter two outcomes coming at home.
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Based on his direction, Jackson brings a sit feel, especially for fantasy teams with another quarterback option ranked in the top 12 in Week 14. My loyalty to star players tends to be a fault over a long fantasy season, but in this case, I’m sticking with Jackson in this game. I have him projected to gain 255 combined yards with two passing touchdowns and a 25% chance of scoring on the ground, ranking him fifth at the quarterback position.
Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts
Heading into Week 14, Jones ranks seventh in quarterback scoring (266.15 fantasy points) in four-point passing touchdown leagues. His fantasy value has declined in four consecutive games, and Jones doesn’t project well as a runner due to a fractured fibula. He’s rushed for under eight yards in seven of his 12 starts. Last week, the Texans held him to a season-low in his completion rate (51.9%) while rushing for one yard on one attempt.
The Jaguars rank 23rd in quarterback defense (273.85 fantasy points). They’ve allowed 25 touchdowns (22 passing and three rushing) over their 12 matchups. Despite the appearance of weakness, Quarterbacks gain only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. Over the past three weeks, Jacksonville has allowed one passing touchdown while dominating in two contests (LAC – 118/0 and TEN – 141/0), helped by an improved pass rush (12 sacks) over this span.
Jones’s mobility will remain in question until he regains his health, as reflected in his rushing attempts. I can’t trust his ceiling despite having a talented receiving corps and an elite running back. I view Jones as a sit in this matchup. In addition, Jones has 16 touchdowns at home (seven games), compared to eight on the road (five starts).
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