Wholesale turkey prices are soaring this year, as bird flu outbreaks and resulting supply shortages threaten to raise the price of Americans’ Thanksgiving meals.
According to a September outlook report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the wholesale price for frozen whole hen turkeys will average 131.5 cents per pound for 2025—157 and 155 cents, respectively, in the third and fourth quarters. This marks a 40 percent increase over last year’s annual price of 93.7 cents.
Why It Matters
The increase in wholesale costs for retailers could translate into higher prices on grocery store shelves, putting additional strain on already budget-conscious Americans this Thanksgiving. However, despite tight supplies, many retailers have rolled out meal bundles to draw in consumers that could help shoppers reap significant savings.
What To Know
As the USDA noted in its report, the increase in prices reflects weaker supplies this year, itself the result of outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza—a severe form of bird flu. Outbreaks surged in late 2024 and early 2025, affecting hundreds of commercial flocks and millions of birds, and leading to severe egg shortages and soaring prices.
The USDA said several new outbreaks had been recorded in August and September, affecting hundreds of thousands of birds across North and South Dakota.
This has exacerbated already tight supplies. CBS News, citing USDA estimates, reported that farmers raised roughly 195 million turkeys in 2025, down from 200 million in 2024 and around 245Â million in 2016.
The prospect of higher turkey prices comes amid broader concerns over rising costs. While the latest inflation report came in cooler than anticipated, Americans remain wary about prices and their overall financial outlook.
In the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey, released on Friday, the main index fell for the third consecutive month in October, and has now dropped 24 percent year-over-year. Americans’ view of current economic conditions has fallen nearly 10 percent over the same period, while the expectations index has slipped 32 percent since last October.
However, according to a report from Business Insider, Americans can cut costs this Thanksgiving by relying on one of the many meal kits being offered at major retailers. These include $40 kits from Walmart and Aldi which serve 10 people, and a $42 bundle from Costco meant for a gathering of eight.
What People Are Saying
Jada Thompson, professor of agricultural economics and agribusiness at the University of Arkansas, told Newsweek: “In general, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza—aka bird flu—has infected turkey flocks in the U.S. and this has led to a decline in the supplies, which put upward pressure on prices. There are different turkey markets so not all wholesale prices are reflected in our traditional Thanksgiving turkey.”
David Ortega, a professor of food economics and policy at Michigan State University, told CBS News: “Retailers typically use turkeys as a loss leader. That is, they price them very competitively—sometimes even below cost—to draw shoppers into stores ahead of Thanksgiving.”
What Happens Next
The latest livestock and poultry outlook from the USDA was scheduled for release last week, but has been delayed as a result of the ongoing government shutdown.
