A retired Ukrainian officer called for Taiwan’s president to be involved in simulations of possible wartime scenarios, warning Taipei not to “repeat our mistakes” as it shores up its defenses amid threats from China.
Why It Matters
Many analysts have drawn parallels between Taiwan and Ukraine, two democratic societies living in the shadow of powerful, adversarial neighbors, since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbor, and the conflict is being watched carefully in both Beijing and Taipei.
China claims Taiwan as its territory, though the Chinese Communist Party has never governed there. Chinese President Xi Jinping has vowed unification is inevitable and not ruled out use of force. The increasing tempo of Chinese military activity around the island and the widening gap in military capabilities has in recent years driven the administration of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, like his predecessor, to boost defense spending and step up its military modernization program.
Newsweek has contacted the foreign ministries of both China and Taiwan for comment.
What To Know
Taiwan’s president should take part in “rehearsals” focused on potential enemy movements in order to make more informed decisions during wartime, retired Ukrainian Air Force Colonel Andrii Ordynovych said in an interview with the Central News Agency, which is partially funded by Taiwan’s government.
“The political leadership, I believe, has to be very conscious and have full security situation awareness in order to exercise some kind of right in a timely manner, or apply rules of engagement […] from the strategic level to the tactical level,” he added.
This could mean the leader’s involvement in both computer-assisted simulations, he said, and exercises involving reserve forces and civilians—such as those held in July during Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang military exercise.
The ultimate goal, he said, is to establish rules of engagement covering as wide a range of potential scenarios as possible. “We [Ukraine] did not respond with appropriate actions before the full-scale invasion [and] before [Russia’s annexation of Crimea in] 2014. You don’t need to repeat our mistakes,” Ordynovych said.
He also praised Taiwan’s recent moves to strengthen decentralized command. Security analysts have previously identified overcentralization as a vulnerability in the island’s defense posture.
What People Are Saying
Bryce Barros, a security analyst and associate fellow at the think tank GLOBSEC, told Newsweek during an interview last month: “I think Taiwan needs to focus on making sure that unit tactics are done to the lowest level possible. So empowering junior NCOs and NCOs across their military is a huge key thing that’s going to be really key to defending the island and arguably is the biggest reason why Ukraine was able to defend itself, right?”
Hsieh Jih-sheng, deputy chief of the general staff for intelligence at Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense, during his remarks at the Warsaw Security Forum Tuesday, per Reuters: “There are many things that we can learn from the Ukrainian theater that we can elevate for our overall readiness,” Hsieh added. “The defeat of Ukraine will signal that China can take more aggression toward Taiwan.”
Hua Chunying, then-spokesperson for China’s Foreign Ministry, said at the onset of Russia’s February 2022 invasion: “Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact.”
What Happens Next
Despite the comparisons, analysts have pointed out key differences that set Ukraine and Taiwan apart. These include geographical factors, such as the 90-mile-wide and often turbulent Taiwan Strait, and economic ones, such as Taiwan’s central role in global tech supply chains as the producer of more than 90 percent of the world’s advanced semiconductors.
There is also the potential of a U.S.-led military intervention.
Washington is Taiwan’s main arms supplier and has responded to China’s growing assertiveness by bolstering its military footprint and deepening defense cooperation with key allies. However, successive U.S. administrations have carefully maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” on whether it would directly intervene in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
U.S. President Donald Trump has said Xi assured him he would not move against Taiwan during Trump’s second term.
