What Putin Seeks to Gain From Donald Trump in Ukraine Peace Deal

Donald Trump has long said he can end the war started by Vladimir Putin within a day, but how soon talks take place after the president-elect’s inauguration depends on whether the terms satisfy the incoming U.S. president, as well as his Russian and Ukrainian counterparts.

Despite Trump’s boast, few expect a photo shoot of the three leaders on January 21 amid sticking points over whether freezing the current frontline would play into Russia’s hands and if Putin, or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, can even agree to talks.

“Putin has to be convinced that it’s going to be too costly for Russia to continue because he wants to overthrow the government, take over the whole country, and no one has been willing to stop him until now,” Kurt Volker, former U.S. ambassador to NATO, told Newsweek.

“It’s a matter of putting some credible capability on the table to convince Putin that he has to stop,” said Volker, who was Trump’s special representative for Ukraine until September 2019. “Therefore, I’m not sure it’s a matter of meeting any Russian demands, nor do I think that Zelensky’s desire the Ukrainians that get all their territory back will be met, either. I think it’s truly about stopping the conflict where it is.”

Putin was said to be willing to discuss a ceasefire agreement with Trump but rejected any significant territorial concessions and insisted that Kyiv abandon its NATO aspirations, according to a November 20 report by Reuters, whose claims the Kremlin denied.

In September 2022, seven months after Russia’s invasion, Putin declared Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as annexed regions, although more than two years later, they are not fully controlled by Moscow. Former NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Monday a ceasefire that leaves Russia still in control of the occupied territories would not mean Kyiv would have to give up its land “forever.”

“We need a ceasefire line,” Stoltenberg said, that ideally would include all the territories annexed by Moscow, but “we see that this is not necessarily realistic in the near future.”

There also has been a shift in Zelensky’s rhetoric about full Ukrainian territorial integrity being key to any peace deal. He told the Kyodo news agency Sunday that his army “lacks the strength” to liberate occupied territories and “diplomatic solutions” might work.

However, Putin has maximalist goals and bringing him to the table with Trump would require the Russian leader to feel he is on the back foot at a time when his forces are making gains, albeit slowly, and Kyiv faces a serious manpower shortage.

Newsweek has contacted the Trump team and the Kremlin for comment.

Annexed territories

“For Russia, the priority is to maintain control over most of the occupied territories and Crimea to show the war was worth waging,” John Foreman, former British defense attaché to Moscow and Kyiv, told Newsweek.

Zelensky has insisted that Ukraine needed security guarantees from NATO and more weapons to defend itself before any talks with Russia took place. Stoltenberg also suggested that Kyiv needed security guarantees not restricted to alliance membership that included “other ways to arm” the country.

“Putin wants assurances over Ukraine’s future ‘non bloc status’ [or] neutrality,” Foreman said. “Russia would also want promises on the lifting of Western sanctions due to the damage the war has done to Russia’s economy.”

“It wants to talk directly with the U.S. over the heads of the Ukrainians,” he added.

Trump’s nominee for special Ukrainian peace envoy, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, has said that any U.S. policy to end the war should include demanding a ceasefire and a negotiated settlement.

It is not clear if Trump will implement Kellogg’s plan, co-authored with former aide Fred Fleitz, which called for U.S. aid to Kyiv to stop unless there were talks with Putin. The conflict should be frozen on its current frontlines, but the U.S. should give assistance to Ukraine to stop further advances, it added.

Foreman said that doubt over continued aid to Kyiv from a second Trump administration and internationally, combined with Russian battlefield gains and growing support in Ukraine for a deal, weigh on Zelensky as he seeks to end the “hot phase” of the war.

“Without firm security guarantees, there will be nothing to prevent Russia from returning,” Foreman said. “The outline of a possible deal can be seen, but there are many hurdles to one being struck. Putin thinks he is winning and it’s hard to see him compromising without strong U.S. carrots and sticks such as in the Kellogg plan.”

Putin could also use the pretext of talks to create confusion and make it seem as if he has political demands that would satisfy him, said Volker, distinguished fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “He can use a negotiating process like that to tie everybody into knots. This is very much what he did after 2014,” when Russia annexed Crimea.

However, Trump will take office weeks after President Joe Biden gave Kyiv the green light to use long-range ATACMS inside Russian territory. Biden also imposed tough sanctions over the last nearly three years of war, all key points of leverage for the president-elect.

Volker believes Trump may use increased U.S. energy production and exports to harm Russia.

“That allows him to close the gap on sanctions,” Volker said. “There’s been a lack of enforcement of sanctions because the Biden administration has not wanted to risk higher gasoline prices. Trump doesn’t have a need for that.”