Who Is Winning the Election in Arizona? Donald Trump, Kamala Harris Updates

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are both hoping to win Arizona and take its 11 electoral votes.

In 2020, President Joe Biden secured a narrow victory, with 49.4 percent of the vote, flipping it blue after Trump’s 2016 win with about 49 percent. Ahead of the 2024 vote, polling consistently showed Trump and Harris neck-and-neck, with just one point separating them in the last few days before Election Day.

Arizona is one of seven swing states that both parties have been targeting, in the hope of gaining its 11 Electoral College votes, which could help get them over the 270 mark needed to win the White House. It’s home to Maricopa County, which was one of the areas Trump alleged voter fraud following the 2020 election.

With 51 percent of the vote counted, Trump was leading Harris with 49.6 percent, according to projections from CNN.

How did Arizona vote in 2016 and 2020?

In 2016, Arizona voted for Trump. The Republican won with about 49 percent of the vote against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 45 percent.

Arizona then flipped to blue in 2020, with Biden winning with 49.4 percent of the vote to Trump’s 49 percent. Biden won by fewer than 11,000 votes among more than 2.3 million cast.

In Maricopa County, which covers Phoenix and is the most populous in the state, Biden won with 50.3 percent of the vote to Trump’s 48.1 percent, prompting the latter to claim the state’s election was rigged, claims that have been proved false. In the years since, election workers have beefed up security and increased transparency tools.

In November 2020, 1.37 million people were registered as Democrats to 1.5 million Republicans, with 4.2 million registered to vote overall.

In October 2024, Democratic Party registered voter numbers had fallen to 1.26 million, while 1.56 million aligned themselves with the Republican Party. In total, 4.36 million people were registered to vote.

What were polling averages in Arizona?

Ahead of Election Day 2024, polling consistently showed a tight race.

In late August, Harris was enjoying a slight lead over Trump, per 538, but he took the lead when September rolled around. One of the final polls had Trump at 50 percent to Harris’ 49 percent.

Immigration, abortion among biggest issues

As a border state, immigration has been a key issue for Arizonans this election cycle. A down-ballot vote on illegal border crossings, migrants using false documents and fentanyl trafficking, known as Proposition 314, saw mixed levels of support because of the combined areas it covered.

The measure included provision which would allow local law enforcement to arrest anyone who entered the U.S. illegally from Mexico.

On abortion, another proposition on the ballot was a measure preventing the state from banning abortion until the fetus is viable and allowing later abortions to protect a pregnant woman’s physical or mental health.

In total, 13 down-ballot measures were voted on in Arizona.

In Arizona, where more than 1.4 million votes had already been cast one week before Election Day, Republicans made up 42 percent of those votes, while Democrats accounted for 35 percent, according to tracking data.

Trump made more stops in Arizona than Harris

Trump held at least five rallies in the state during the campaign, including a stop in Tucson for a visit to the border. Harris visited three times, including a border visit on September 27 and a rally in Phoenix on October 31.